10 PM EST Advisory on Otto

[cycloneye]

** WTNT21 KNHC 010233 ***
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM OTTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162004
0300Z WED DEC 01 2004

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 50.8W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 135 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 60SE 60SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..600NE 300SE 300SW 400NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 50.8W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 50.9W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 31.4N 50.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 31.0N 49.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 30.0N 49.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 29.5N 48.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 28.5N 46.5W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 28.0N 45.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 27.5N 43.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.6N 50.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


In 3 days Otto will be history.

[Wnghs2007]

Interesting. They are taking it Southeast. Must be the shear that will kill it?

[cycloneye]

Discussion
Data from the Plymouth State Weather Center.
Click here for more tropical weather information.

** WTNT41 KNHC 010232 ***
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2004

OTTO IS MAINTAINING SOMETHING RESEMBLING A BAND OF CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF A MOSTLY-EXPOSED CIRCULATION. RECENT QUIKSCAT
DATA AND SHIP REPORTS SUGGEST THAT THE OUTER WINDS ARE DIMINISHING
AND THE WIND STRUCTURE IS BECOMING MORE TYPICAL OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE THREE AGENCIES ARE A
UNANIMOUS 35 KT BUT I WILL HOLD THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 40 KT FOR
THE TIME BEING. OTTO REMAINS OVER COOL WATERS...AND GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE A BLAST OF NORTHWESTERLY AND THEN WESTERLY SHEAR WILL
REACH THE CYCLONE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. CONSEQUENTLY...OTTO DOES NOT
APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH OF A FUTURE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL AND SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE. OTTO IS
LIKELY TO LOSE MOST OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION AND DEGENERATE TO A
REMNANT LOW WELL BEFORE THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

OTTO HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 135/2. WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID-LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC APPROACHING OTTO...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN TO NUDGE OTTO ON AN EASTWARD OR SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED
SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH OF THEIR EARLIER RUNS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT REMAINS WELL NORTH OF
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/0300Z 31.6N 50.8W 40 KT
12HR VT 01/1200Z 31.4N 50.3W 40 KT
24HR VT 02/0000Z 31.0N 49.7W 35 KT
36HR VT 02/1200Z 30.0N 49.0W 35 KT
48HR VT 03/0000Z 29.5N 48.0W 30 KT
72HR VT 04/0000Z 28.5N 46.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 05/0000Z 28.0N 45.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 06/0000Z 27.5N 43.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW



Shear will weaken it in 3 days.

[Wnghs2007]

Discussion
Data from the Plymouth State Weather Center.
Click here for more tropical weather information.

** WTNT41 KNHC 010232 ***
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2004

OTTO IS MAINTAINING SOMETHING RESEMBLING A BAND OF CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF A MOSTLY-EXPOSED CIRCULATION. RECENT QUIKSCAT
DATA AND SHIP REPORTS SUGGEST THAT THE OUTER WINDS ARE DIMINISHING
AND THE WIND STRUCTURE IS BECOMING MORE TYPICAL OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE THREE AGENCIES ARE A
UNANIMOUS 35 KT BUT I WILL HOLD THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 40 KT FOR
THE TIME BEING. OTTO REMAINS OVER COOL WATERS...AND GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE A BLAST OF NORTHWESTERLY AND THEN WESTERLY SHEAR WILL
REACH THE CYCLONE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. CONSEQUENTLY...OTTO DOES NOT
APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH OF A FUTURE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL AND SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE. OTTO IS
LIKELY TO LOSE MOST OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION AND DEGENERATE TO A
REMNANT LOW WELL BEFORE THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

OTTO HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 135/2. WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID-LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC APPROACHING OTTO...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN TO NUDGE OTTO ON AN EASTWARD OR SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED
SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH OF THEIR EARLIER RUNS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT REMAINS WELL NORTH OF
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/0300Z 31.6N 50.8W 40 KT
12HR VT 01/1200Z 31.4N 50.3W 40 KT
24HR VT 02/0000Z 31.0N 49.7W 35 KT
36HR VT 02/1200Z 30.0N 49.0W 35 KT
48HR VT 03/0000Z 29.5N 48.0W 30 KT
72HR VT 04/0000Z 28.5N 46.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 05/0000Z 28.0N 45.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 06/0000Z 27.5N 43.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW



Shear will weaken it in 3 days.

Ok thanks man.

[Scorpion]

So long Otto! You are the hero of the Atlantic hurricane season!

[Wnghs2007]

So long Otto! You are the hero of the Atlantic hurricane season!

Yep. BYE OTTO ENJOY YOUR LAST DAYS.

[Brent]

*Yawn*

[Wnghs2007]

*Yawn*

Hey you yawning at the pipsquweak. How dare you

[yoda]

*Yawn*

Hey you yawning at the pipsquweak. How dare you

I second the YAWN...

[Wnghs2007]

*Yawn*

Hey you yawning at the pipsquweak. How dare you

I second the YAWN...

I second the Green Midgit Gremlins response.

[yoda]

*Yawn*

Hey you yawning at the pipsquweak. How dare you

I second the YAWN...

I second the Green Midgit Gremlins response.

Therefore, the YAWN motion has passed. Thanks KC.