Tropical depression Otto forecast

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Tropical depression Otto
Forecast 7#
12pm pst/3pm est
12-2-2004


Winds 35 mph
Gust 40 mph
Pressure 995 millibars
Movement south-southwest
Centered 28.3/50.4

...Tropical storm Otto, is down graded to a tropical depression over the central north Atlantic.

Tropical depression Otto, has a small area of convection almost centered over the top of the cirulation center. Wind shear out of Cimss shows that the shear is around 20 knots. Even so the shear is shown as picking up 5 knots over the last 3 to 6 hours. The system is moving into warmer waters at this time(75 to 76 degrees). Quickscats still show a well defined LLC/cirulation center. That is backed up with the visible morning satellite.

The upper level wind shear, should increase over time out of the west. Another short wave coming out of the west off the United states east coast. Is expected to help increase the upper level wind shear at 24 to 36 hour time frames. While at this time a low over southeast Canada is helping push southeast wind shear over the system at this moment(50 north/68 west). I think because of the system moving fastly to the south/southwest. It is out running some of the shear at this time. Just like a system moving northeast quickly durning hurricane season. At 24 to 36 hours. This system will not have a chance to do so. Because the wind shear will come at it from the west.

Track
The cyclone is currently moving just west of south at this time. The Avn/gfs model shows a southward movement.This is supported by the Cmc. The Gfdl shows a movmenet to the south to the southwest over the next 36 hours. That is more inline with current movment. Which is close to the track I'm thinking at this moment.


Forecast winds
0 35 mph
6 35 mph
12 35 mph
24 30 mph
36 20 mph
48 15 mph
Gone
Gone
Gone

Forecaster Matthew