The Hurricane Forecast Line

[Cookiely]

From Tampa Tribune Editorial
Jan 22, 2005

Don't Erase That Hurricane Forecast Line


L ast hurricane season's record assault on Florida placed new emphasis on precision forecasting tools.
Unfortunately, some people want to change the National Hurricane Center's ``cone of uncertainty'' graphic to provide less information.

Some officials in hurricane-vulnerable states, Florida included, want to eliminate the center line - the official forecast track of the hurricane's eye - so that people in the larger region will better see the potential danger to themselves.

We urge reformers to keep the forecast line. Citizens want that information and expertise. Besides, the complete graphic, as part of the center's highly detailed advisories, clearly shows the region where the storm could make landfall. The broader area simply needs to be emphasized when hurricane warnings are issued.

The call for change followed Hurricane Charley, which was forecast to hit Tampa in August but turned east in the Gulf and came ashore near Charlotte Harbor. Weather broadcasts had focused on Tampa, even though the cone showed a larger range of possibility.

Hurricane forecasters are on the money far more often than not, and they certainly have learned to stress the greater range of danger.

Based upon what happened to Florida last year, we suspect many more people will be keeping an eye on that ``cone of uncertainty'' during the 2005 season that begins June 1. We have learned to expect the unexpected - no matter where the forecast line leads.

This story can be found at: http://tampatrib.com/News/MGBH4HJ594E.html

[Ixolib]

......We have learned to expect the unexpected - no matter where the forecast line leads.

Their own editorial seems to contradict their bottom line. If they expect the unexpected - "no matter where the forecast line leads" - then why do they WANT to keep the line??? Hmmmm...

[Hurricanehink]

......We have learned to expect the unexpected - no matter where the forecast line leads.

Their own editorial seems to contradict their bottom line. If they expect the unexpected - "no matter where the forecast line leads" - then why do they WANT to keep the line??? Hmmmm...

They probably keep the line as a reference. It shouldn't be taken as God's word, rather as an estimate. If you are within 50 miles of the line, keep a close eye on it. There is no need, IMO to change the system. The Punta Gorda residents were under a hurricane warning.

[HurricaneBill]

The way I saw it, the line was the forecasted path. The outer edges of the cone were the extreme paths the storm could take. Therefore, any area within the cone should prepare for a hurricane.

Punta Gorda had been under a hurricane warning a day before Charley hit. Also weren't mandatory evacuation orders issued long before Charley arrived?

Charley was a nightmarish scenario for meteorologists. I think they handled Charley's situation very good. Yes, Charley was forecasted to come in as a Category 2 or 3, but they had said that under favorable conditions, midget storms have been known to rapidly intensify.

[Derek Ortt]

there was nothing wrong at with the Charley forecast for the WC of Florida.

Now, residents who have a legitimate complain are those living on the EC of Florida as they received a French-like 9 hours of lead time from when the hurricane warning was issued and when the storm hit. Also, those living in the Carolinas have a legit complaint, but NOT those living in Punta Gorda from a track standpoint

[Mezocyclone]

Charlie was indeed an anomoly as hurricanes come and go. I watched as the storm gained strength and traveled on a distinct path that paralleled the West Coast of Florida and just West of Florida Bay it Wobbled, I agree that the cone of possibility should be a point of extreme interest for all involved, yet the major point of interest is about the Black Line.. Most folks that view the forecasts take these sort of things verbatum, and shame on them for their lack of understanding these sort of systems. Does that take away from the facts of what can happen? No! It doesn't at all. If you live in Florida, then it is a personal responsibility to identify the possibilty that a change can ocurr at any given moment....

[cyclonaut]

IMO

Lose the line!

Not everyone is a expert on hurricanes & to those folks the line does two things...Either makes one complacent when the line is NOT heading right at you or makes one overly anxious when the line is pointed right at you 48- 72+ before potential landfall.

[Mezocyclone]

IMO

Lose the line!

Not everyone is a expert on hurricanes & to those folks the line does two things...Either makes one complacent when the line is NOT heading right at you or makes one overly anxious when the line is pointed right at you 48- 72+ before potential landfall.

Ok, So Lose the Line. That still doesn't mean that your media forecasters are not going to point their own Arrows. The line is a projected path of what direction the Storm MAY Travel. It simply bisects the cone, I hope that we all can see that.

[weatherwindow]

IMHO....there is no such thing as too much information...let's keep the line and continue to stress the cone of uncertainty. in addition, continued pressure on the media should result in a more realistic focus. however, we must realize that we can lead the horse to water but cant force it to drink. a certain percentage of the population will ignore all of the caveats and continue to fixate on the line. lets opt for the continuation of a very effective tool