Tropical Cyclone PERCY (20P)

[HURAKAN]

Cyclone Percy is continuing to head towards the southern Cook Islands, as relief efforts are stepped up for two northern islands.

The atoll of Palmerston, with a population of 50 people, is likely to be the next target of Percy, which at last report was packing winds of up to 260 kilometres an hour.

It is a category-four cyclone, the second most devastating on a five-point scale.

Earlier, a state of emergency was declared on the northern Cook Islands of Pukapuka and Nassau, after they were battered by the cyclone.

Houses have been destroyed, roads have been washed out and fresh water is on short supply after the fourth Cyclone to hit the Cooks group in as many weeks.

A New Zealand Air Force Hercules plane is due to fly emergency aid to the island of Penrhyn. The relief supplies will then be shipped to Pukapuka and Nassau.

The Cook Islands cyclone centre, says weather conditions have now eased in the northern islands, allowing the people to clear-up.

Australia offers more aid

Australia has increased its cyclone assistance for the Cook Islands and Tokelau to about US$156,000.

Foreign Affairs Parliamentary Secretary, Bruce Billson, says Australia is working closely with France and New Zealand to assist with recovery operations.

Tokelau was hit by Cyclone Percy at the weekend.

Fortunately Australia is acting on its neighbors like the US does with its Caribbean partners. All those island-nations need the help of anyone that can stretch a hand to them.

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A25 issued from RSMC NADI
Mar 03/0156 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [915 hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6S 164.5W
AT 030000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES9/10 EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHSOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY CURVE SOUTHEAST. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 115
KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE, DECREASING TO 100 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6 to
12 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE, OVER
47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 MILES
OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE
ELSEWHERE.

SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN SINCE PAST 12 HOURS. EYE IS NO LONGER
VISIBLE. STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ON WESTERN EDGE ON THE EIR IMAGE
INDICATES A WESTERLY SHEAR EFFECT ON THE SYSTEM. DVORAK ANALYSIS
BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTRE WITH W SURROUNDING. 0.5 ADDED FOR BANDING
AND YIELDS DT=5.5. MET=PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT: T5.5/6.5/W0.5/12HRS.
CIMMS INDICATES 20 KNOTS WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. OUTFLOW NOW
BECOMING RESTRICTED IN THE NORTHERN QUARDRANT BUT STRONG ELSEWHERE
AND ENHANCED BY A JET ENTRANCE REGION TO THE FAR SOUTH. CYCLONE IS
BEING STEERED SOUTHWARDS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CURVE SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH FROM THE WEST.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 031200 UTC 21.3S 163.5W MOV SSE AT 10 KT WITH 100
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 040000 UTC 23.2S 162.4W MOV SSE AT 10 KT WITH 80
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 041200 UTC 24.9S 160.3W MOV SE AT 11 KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 050000 UTC 25.5S 156.5W MOV SE AT 11 KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 032000 UTC.

MIGHTY PERCY SLOWLY BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES FINDING IT WAY TOWARD THE SOUTH POLE.

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A26 issued from RSMC NADI
Mar 03/0805 UTC 2005 UTC.

**CORRECTION FOR NEXT ISSUE TIME**

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [940 hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5S 164.0W
AT 030600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES9 EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 08 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY CURVE EAST-SOUTHEAST. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT
90 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE, DECREASING TO 70 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE,
OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 90 MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 240
MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SECTORS FROM EAST THROUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AND WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

RAPID WEAKENING CONTINUES WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND INDISTINCT EYE
FEATURE. NORTHWEST VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PRODUCING ASYMMETRIC CLOUD
PATTERN. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON LG EYE WITH B SURROUNDING YIELDS
DT=5.0. MET=5.5, PT=5.0. CI HELD AT 5.5: T5.0/5.5/W1.5/24HRS. OUTFLOW
RESTRICTED IN NORTHWEST QUADRANT BUT GOOD ELSEWHERE AND ENHANCED BY A
JET ENTRANCE REGION TO THE FAR SOUTH. CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED
SOUTHEAST AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN MOVING THE SYSTEM FURTHER EAST-SOUTHEAST
THEN EAST, WITH CONTINUED WEAKENING AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES.


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 031800 UTC 22.3S 163.0W MOV SSE AT 10 KT WITH 90
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 040600 UTC 24.1S 161.4W MOV SE AT 14 KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 041800 UTC 25.7S 158.0W MOV ESE AT 20 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 050600 UTC 26.2S 152.1W MOV E AT 28 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 031400 UTC.



PERCY BEGINS TO DECAY REALLY FAST.

[P.K.]

03/1422 UTC 22.2S 163.7W T5.0/5.5 PERCY -- South Pacific Ocean

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A27 issued from RSMC NADI
Mar 03/1407 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [940 hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5S 163.3W
AT 031200 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES9/10 EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 08 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY CURVE EAST-SOUTHEAST. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT
90 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE, DECREASING TO 70 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE,
OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 90 MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 240
MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SECTORS FROM EAST THROUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AND WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

PERCY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. EYE FEATURE NOT VISIBLE NOW AS CYCLONE CENTRE MOVED UNDER
THE COOLED CLOUD TOPS.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED EMBEDDED CENTRE ON W SURROUNDING YIELDS DT=5.0.
NO BANDING FEATURE ADDED. MET=5.0, PT=5.0. CI HELD AT 5.5:
T5.0/5.5/W2.0/24HRS. OUTFLOW RESTRICTED IN NORTHWEST QUADRANT BUT
GOOD ELSEWHERE AND ENHANCED BY A JET ENTRANCE REGION TO THE FAR
SOUTH. CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED SOUTHEAST AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN
MOVING THE SYSTEM FURTHER EAST-SOUTHEAST THEN EAST, WITH CONTINUED
WEAKENING AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 04000 UTC 23.3S 161.8W MOV SE AT 12 KT WITH 80 KT
CLOSE TO
CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 041200 UTC 24.9S 159.7W MOV SE AT 12 KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 050000 UTC 26.4S 155.2W MOV ESE AT 15 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 051200 UTC 26.9S 150.0W MOV ESE AT 20 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 032000 UTC.

[P.K.]

This isn't good at all Note about this photo "Do not print or otherwise use this photo without NZ Airforce permission !" http://www.rambocam.com/

[cycloneye]

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (PERCY) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z2 --- NEAR 22.6S0 163.2W2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.6S0 163.2W2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 24.4S0 161.2W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 26.1S9 157.6W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 27.1S0 153.6W5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 28.5S5 147.0W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
032100Z6 POSITION NEAR 23.0S5 162.7W6. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC)
20P (PERCY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM WEST OF RAROTONGA, HAS
TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 20P IS BEGIN-
NING TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WITH RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWING THE DEEP CONVECTION BEING DISPLACED
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 20P WILL
BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW AND COMPLETE TRANS-
ITION IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z3 AND 042100Z7.//

Percy is weakening steadly now down to 90kts.It will transition to extratropical in 48 hours.

[P.K.]

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A30 issued from RSMC NADI
Mar 04/0814 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [970 hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.2S 160.1W
AT 040600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES9/10 EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 18 KNOTS AND
EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE FURTHER. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT
65 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE, DECREASING TO 50 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE,
OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 90 MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 240
MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SECTORS FROM EAST THROUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AND WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASING STEADILY OVER PERCY. COLDEST TOPS
REMAIN SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LLCC. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON
CENTRE EMBEDDED WITHIN MG, YIELDING DT=4.0. MET=4.0, PT=4.0. FT BASED
ON DT: T4.0/4.5/W1.5/24HRS. OUTFLOW RESTRICTED IN NORTHWEST QUADRANT
BUT ENHANCED IN SOUTHEAST BY A JET ENTRANCE REGION. CYCLONE IS BEING
STEERED SOUTHEAST AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
AND IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN MOVING THE SYSTEM FURTHER EAST-SOUTHEAST
THEN EAST, WITH CONTINUED WEAKENING AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES.


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 041800 UTC 25.7S 156.6W MOV ESE AT 18 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 050600 UTC 26.6S 152.4W MOV ESE AT 18 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 051800 UTC 26.9S 147.4W MOV ESE AT 20 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 060600 UTC 26.8S 142.6W MOV E AT 22 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 041400 UTC.

[HURAKAN]

PERCY IS OUT OF THE GAME.

[senorpepr]

Wow... it seems like I've been gone forever and a Monday. Work keeps me too busy. :sigh:

Anyway... Fiji has dropped it's responsibility for Percy. New Zealand is warning on the cyclone now.

http://www.metservice.co.nz/default/ind ... newarnings

STORM WARNING 065

This affects ocean area/s: PACIFIC


Tropical Cyclone PERCY [980 hPa] centre was located near 25 decimal 1
South 155 decimal 5 West at 041800 UTC.
Position Poor.
Repeat position 25.1S 155.5W at 041800 UTC.

Cyclone moving east-southeast at 20 knots. Cyclone weakening.

Expect sustained winds of 50 knots close to the centre, decreasing to
40 knots in the next 12 to 18 hours.
Expect winds over 47 knots within 60 miles of centre and
over 33 knots within 180 miles of centre in the sectors
from northeast through south to southwest and within 120
miles elsewhere.

Forecast position near 26.0S 151.0W at 050600 UTC
and near 27.0S 143.5W at 051800 UTC.

This warning cancels and replaces warning 064.


Tropical Cyclone Percy: 65 mph (1-min avg)

[HurricaneBill]

What is the farthest east a South Pacific cyclone has gone?

[HURAKAN]

What is the farthest east a South Pacific cyclone has gone?

Tropical Cyclone Ursula (TC-17P) 29 Jan-->
--------------------------------------------

An advisory was issued on a new, developing depression at 0600 UTC
on 30 Jan, locating the system about 125 nm north-northwest of Tahiti.
The system was moving slowly to the southeast. By 30/1800 UTC gale
intensity had been reached and the cyclone was named Ursula. At the
time it was named, Ursula was located about 150 nm northeast of Tahiti.
Over the next few days Tropical Cyclone Ursula moved on a southeasterly
course which took it through the middle of the Tuamotu Archipelago.
The storm passed well east of Tahiti and seemed to move generally to
the southwest of and parallel to the main chain of islands in the
Tuamotu group.

Ursula's forward motion increased considerably on 31 Jan, and by
0000 UTC on 1 Feb the storm was located far to the southeast of Tahiti
and about 500 nm west-northwest of Pitcairn Island. Maximum 10-min avg
winds had increased to an estimated 55 kts by this time. Surprisingly,
NPMOC at Pearl Harbor never issued any warnings on this system until
0600 UTC on 1 Feb, when their first warning classifed Ursula as a
hurricane.

Very few tropical cyclones move as far east in the South Pacific as
did Ursula. The greater than normal tropical cyclone activity in this
area in recent months can likely be attributed to the warmer SSTs and
especially lower atmospheric pressures in the region due to the current
warm phase of ENSO. The author at this point has not received any
damage reports from the areas through which Ursula passed. If any do
become available they will be reported in the February summary.



I DON'T HAVE THE EXACT ANSWER BUT URSULA IS A GREAT EXAMPLE OF EASTWARD ORGANIZATION.