La Niña is Unlikely This Summer

[donsutherland1]

Looking at the MEI, here are some interesting statistics:

Seasons where the February MEI came to +0.500 or above (February 2005: +0.742): 3/16 (19%) saw a La Niña during the July-September period; 0/16 (0%) saw a La Niña during the April-June period.

1/8 (13%) of those seasons that also saw the February MEI rise from the January figure experienced a La Niña during the July-September period. None saw a La Niña during the April-June period.

1/11 (9%) of all seasons that saw a positive February MEI and an increase over the January figure experienced La Niña conditions in the July-September period (1998). None saw a La Niña in the April-June timeframe.

0/3 (0%) of the three seasons irrespective of ENSO conditions that saw a rise of +0.300 or more in February experienced La Niña conditions during either the April-June or July-September periods. February 2005 saw an increase of +0.444 in the MEI.

Latest ENSO Models (February 2005):

[yoda]

It seems we would be headed for a ENSO neutral summer, or a possible weak El Nino...

[donsutherland1]

Yoda,

I believe the current weak El Niño will likely be declared at an end either in April or May. Summer should see neutral ENSO conditions (models, emerging analogs, etc.).

[MWatkins]

Yoda,

I believe the current weak El Niño will likely be declared at an end either in April or May. Summer should see neutral ENSO conditions (models, emerging analogs, etc.).

Don...

1. Great work as always.

2. I don't really have anything to add here...the cool tounge off South America...expanding westward...should balance against the somewhat warm western Pacific net out in a neutral ENSO over the key months of this hurricane season.

MW

[cycloneye]

I second Mikes words.Great work as always don.This confirms what CPC said in it's March update last week that ENSO is continuing to turn neutral.