S FL Hurricanes - Stuart vs Miami

[Blown Away]

Most of the literature I read relating to the probability of a hurricane passing near these cities heavily favors Miami (Gold Coast) over Stuart (Treasure Coast). I looked at the landfall maps for Hurricanes for S FL (From the Atlantic & backdoor) from 1886 - 2005. 22 land falling hurricanes passed within approx. 50 miles of Stuart and 25 land falling hurricanes passed within approx.50 miles of Miami. Why do the local meteorologists put so much emphasis on extreme S FL when the #'s are very similar. The S Fl hurricanes seem to go S of Miami but N of Marathon Key or N of West Palm Beach and S of Vero. From Miami to West Palm seems to get avoided, most of the time. A novice observation.

[StormChasr]

???? I'd be shocked if that were verified. Stuart having as many landfalls as Miami-Dade/Broward? Probabilities of 50 year hurricane are 10 times greater in region 6 versus region 7, according to Dr. Gray's research

[StormChasr]

Here's a link to the Dr. Gray's Excel data, and the Landfall Project, and you can compare. http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane/welcome.html

[depotoo]

well - i know palm beach was in 2 of them last year.

[Scorpion]

Nah Palm Beach didnt get the direct center. I believe that it would be easier for a hurricane to come in near Stuart than near Miami simply because the Bermuda High would have to be extremely strong to keep the hurricane on a W course all the way to 80 west.

[Lindaloo]

Palm Beach still experienced 2 of them, even though they did not get hit directly.

[Derek Ortt]

Miami gets more landfalls because most of MIA's hurricanes come from the SOUTH, not the east, while up at Stuart it has to be from the east or SW (very rare though for SW as very few major hurricanes hit the SW coast and survive the entire trip across). Thus, even if there is a strong trough like Irene, MIA still gets hit

[gtalum]

While a difference of 3 canes might not seem like much, statistically it is significant. It's a 12% difference.

[gatorcane]

I didn't post the image from 1970-1994, but during that 25-year cold regime there were only 38 major hurricanes with 10 landfalls, pretty much the same as from 1900-1925

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Reference:
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