MGC: 2005 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Forecast

[george_r_1961]

I rely somewhat on trends for the simple reason im not a trained met like many here are. Many times im right; other times im dead wrong. Based on what im seeing now this could be a bad year for Florida, the NC Outer Banks, Long Island, and New England. Im undecided on the Gulf states. The Tidewater area of Virginia and the Delmarva are at somewhat higher risk too. A trough could set up along the coast that would possibly steer storms over SE Florida..and just offshore northeastward to Hatteras..then on to Long Island and New England.

[Dean4Storms]

I would imply that the biggest reason why the GOM has been limited in inception and formation to a Major storm is two fold, latitude and room. Like Derek pointed out most LLC's formed in the GOM are either at the tail end of a westerlies induced front or the northern extent of a TW especially late in the season. If the LLC was induced by a westerly front it usually is just a short matter of time before another front invades the Gulf and sweeps the formed TC from the front before northward. This is also a problem late in the season as well with the northern extent development with TW's.


Your numbers look good MGC and I would agree with alot of your analysis, although if the ridge builds back to along the SE CONUS as it did in 04 it could be another eventful season. None of us will really know this one till maybe July.