Floridians Pay Attention to the Winds Starting in May

[gatorcane]

Last summer was the first time in a *long* time that the FL peninsula saw such a dominating E and SE windflow for most of the summer. This windflow actually started unseasonably early in mid May. This contributed to the drought people speak of for South Florida in late Spring and Early summer. Typically W and SW winds will stick around into May and into some of June that increase afternoon thunderstorm activity along the east coast. BUT what you don't hear as much of is that this windflow contributed to more rain along the west coast of FL in late spring. The west coast saw their summer rainy season try to begin in May last year which is unheard of. I know this first-hand because several beach days were ruined by afternoon/evening storms rolling in from the East. There was also a series of strong fronts that pushed into central florida and stalled through June which is unusual. I remember a string of days in May where the pattern was more like August, very unusual.

I would like to see how this windflow sets up this May. I'm very curious if we will see dominating E and SE winds as we did last year. This may indicate possible storm threats for FL from the E again. More troughiness and a less pronounced E and SE windflow will indicate more potential for storms to creep up from the South and West.

[EDR1222]

You are right there sure was a persistent flow last year. I remember also in 2003, it was similar and it began in early May. The meterologists at the NWS Melbourne site were blaming a persistant south-east wind flow for the coastal upwelling that occured along the Florida beaches during that summer. And if you recall, Henri weakened a strong ridge that was in place just enough to turn Isabel more northward. Had Henri not been there, Isabel might have come much closer to Florida.

[boca]

I agree with Boca_Chris lets see what happens in May to see what possibe hurricane season we might have here in lower SE FL. My gut feeling and its just an opinion is that we might see activity around FL but not like last year.The kelvin wave out in the Pacific could be a player that causes EL Nino,but its too early to tell yet. I'm more confident when playing crabs then trying to figure out an active or inactive season along with land falling hurricanes.

[Amanzi]

I would like to see how this windflow sets up this May. I'm very curious if we will see dominating E and SE winds as we did last year. This may indicate possible storm threats for FL from the E again. More troughiness and a less pronounced E and SE windflow will indicate more potential for storms to creep up from the South and West.

I agree it will be interesting to see if the set up will be similar... good thinking there, now you have my brain going as well!

[gatorcane]

Glad I am not the only one that saw this last summer. Take a look at the extended forecast though. I hope this pattern is not foreshadowing later in the summer


SFC HIGH QUICKLY SCOOTS EAST THURS NIGHT AND STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE E BAHAMAS...RIDGING TOWARD THE PENINSULA INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROMOTE INCREASING RETURN SOUTHEAST FLOW OF SUBTROPICAL AIR BEGINNING FRIDAY AND BEING FELT IN EARNEST NEXT WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL PUSH DAYTIME TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S OVER ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AND HOLD TEMPS WELL INTO THE
70S EACH EVENING...FALLING TO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 BY SUNRISE.

[cyclonaut]

You know this pattern will come & go right.There will be many times this summer where there will be a trough around & the t-storms that form out in the Everglades will move toward the Metro areas of Miami-Dade,Broward & Palm Beach Counties & we'll see precip chances in the 60-80% range for days.That will undoubtedly happen this summer on many occasions.Last season ridging was around when the hurricanes began to develop & we know what happened.Other years the EC had a persistant trough & allowed pretty much nothing to get to much passed Bermuda's longitude..& other years there was ridging in place but the saviour EC Trough arrived just in the nick of time to save Florida but the Carolinas got what we did not.

It comes down to timing..WHere are the storms going to be & how will they interact with other systems??

Are storms going to be picked up by troughs at the last second?

If there is substancial ridging will it make storms track south of Florida & the U.S.?

Will the pattern be just like last season?

Will there be a late season monster like Mitch in the Caribbean?

No one knows these answers & what happened yesterday with record lows or what will happen tomorrow with a easterly flow will not make the answers any clearer.All I know is that there will be hurricanes,highs,lows,troughs,shear,etc & how,when & where these things interact with each other will determine who gets hit.