StormChasr wrote:Look at Cycloneye's charts and see the latest one above. The Kelvin wave not only raised the EPAC temps considerably, there is abnormally warm water behind---so there will be a Nino (in my unhumble opinion).
I disagree about bnormally warm water behind. In fact, exactly the opposite is true.
If you'll look at the equatorial temperature animation above, you'll see that the thermocline in the WPAC is substantially shallower than it was a couple of months ago, and the max temperature out in that region is about 1 1/2 degrees lower than it was then. If another Kelvin wave were to be following the current one to reinforce it, we ought to be seeing the beginnings of that by now, There is a tiny bit of deepening of the thermocline out at about 150-160 degrees east, but it's a very small effect compared to the last wave.
Another consideration is that while there is a significant warm spot in Nino-3 and also a tiny warm spot right on the Equador coast, the main upwelling region along Peru which feeds the Humbolt current is still neutral to very slightly cool. I don't believe there's enough left in this Kelvin wave to change that persistently, nor will any follow-on be strong enough to do so.
I've been the only one advocating a position before--when the NHC was forecasting a "right angle turn" for Frances into Daytona Beach, I knew that was absurd, extremely improbable, and was simply NOT going to happen, and I made my feelings known.
Hey ... if this stuff were simple, it wouldn't be anywhere near as interesting, right?
