T # 1.0/1.0 FOR EPAC INVEST...

[chadtm80]

If advisories for the EPAC system are dropped as it crosses and it happens to regenerate with new advisories in the Atlantic, then it gets a new name...HOWEVER, if the system remains classified on its journey into the Atlantic (that is, having continuous advisories) it WILL retain the name.

I believe the system will make it to hurricane status since UL conditions are favorable and don't even talk about SSTs...

where did you get that info Hyperstorm?

[dixiebreeze]

The 2004 season was a season of "firsts" and rarities and 2005 is trying to catch up quickly.

[feederband]

Boy I tell ya, the vis loop on this thing is really impressive. Are they waiting for a eye to forM before they classify it a TD

[Hyperstorm]

I would have to look for it, but it was a new policy that was introduced very recently (a few years ago). Judging from these new standards, Hurricane Cesar would have retained the name in 1996...

[x-y-no]

Winds are definately of TS force in this thing, but no pronounced LLC via SCAT. This thing is defaintely becoming better organized though. If this thing tries to cross Mexico, the terrain will rip it to shreds. No chance of anything in the GoM IMO. Microwave SAT analysis is very impressive to me attm....we could have a storm by evening.

Actually ... I hadn't bothered to look at the SCAT image this morning (my bad). I was basing my opinion on the development of the structure. There is a fair-sized field of 40 knot winds in the southwest quadrant in the 1232Z quikscat pass. That's a little more impressive than I thought.

I don't dispute that it could make TS status by this evening. We'll see.

Jan

[James]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 171608
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM PDT TUE MAY 17 2005

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.

A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS CENTERED ABOUT 450 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR. THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

$$

[Hyperstorm]

If advisories for the EPAC system are dropped as it crosses and it happens to regenerate with new advisories in the Atlantic, then it gets a new name...HOWEVER, if the system remains classified on its journey into the Atlantic (that is, having continuous advisories) it WILL retain the name.

I believe the system will make it to hurricane status since UL conditions are favorable and don't even talk about SSTs...

I wanted to clarify that if the advisories for the system are dropped BUT the system's LLC remains identifiable, when/if it regenerates, it will keep its name since it is the SAME LLC. If a new LLC forms, it will get a new name.

[dixiebreeze]

Cycloneye says T # now 1.5

[cycloneye]

Cycloneye says T # now 1.5

Well I dont say anything.It is information from SSD dvorak sat estimates.

[dixiebreeze]

Well of course, cycloneye.

[GalvestonDuck]

If advisories for the EPAC system are dropped as it crosses and it happens to regenerate with new advisories in the Atlantic, then it gets a new name...HOWEVER, if the system remains classified on its journey into the Atlantic (that is, having continuous advisories) it WILL retain the name.

I believe the system will make it to hurricane status since UL conditions are favorable and don't even talk about SSTs...

I wanted to clarify that if the advisories for the system are dropped BUT the system's LLC remains identifiable, when/if it regenerates, it will keep its name since it is the SAME LLC. If a new LLC forms, it will get a new name.

If Ivan could keep his name after that crazy loop he did last year, anything's possible with the names.

[Derek Ortt]

the policy regarding name changes was adjusted after Cesar so that TC's retain the same name if they maintain their identity while crossing into a new basin

In short, this may be the first year where we have 2 A storms, though Adrian is not going to be anything major for the Atlantic side

[chadtm80]

Thanks Derek. You know anywhere this is documented on the web?

[Gorky]

Didn't Tropical Cyclone Juliet become Tropical Cyclone Adeline earlier this year though? I know for a while it was listed as Juliet-Adeline, and then I thought they dropped the Juliet part of the name...

[Derek Ortt]

has been documented in old Iris discussions from 2001 and in the explaniation as to why it was renamed Manuel (because the Iris center dissipated over the same mountains that this thing has to cross, and this is not a near cat 5 hurricane, so this argument is likely to be moot anyways)

[Rainband]

I agree Derek, interesting though because my local discussion in a other thread sates the GFS develops a low south of cuba this week Maybe the remains of the epac system.