Neil Frank

[Cookiely]

Meteorologist worries about warm Atlantic

By Rick Cousins
Correspondent

Published May 28, 2005

PASADENA — Houston hurricane guru Neil Frank says a warming period in the Atlantic might make for an especially active season for the Texas Gulf Coast.

Meanwhile, the Texas Department of Public Safety says new rules will mandate where those fleeing will have to go if a hurricane does arrive.

“We’re in a new warm period in the Atlantic,” said Frank, meteorologist for Houston’s CBS affiliate KHOU Channel 11, in an interview Thursday at the annual National Weather Service workshop in Pasadena.

“During the last 10-year period like this, we had 12 hurricanes that struck Texas, and five of those were major.” said Frank, former head of the National Hurricane Center.

“If past history is any indication, I think we’ll start seeing significant increases in hurricanes in Texas over the next few years,” Frank said.

The workshop will be followed by a series of town meetings to be held in Galveston, Jamaica Beach and other cities around the county during the next few weeks.

One major change that will affect the entire county will be the use of specific evacuation routes.

“This new traffic management plan is forced routing,” said Clay Kenneley, regional liaison officer with the DPS.

“If you have some place you want to go, you need to leave before the plan is implemented,” he said.

“Otherwise, if you are on (state) Highway 146, you’re going to go to Lufkin; if you are on I-45, you are going to Huntsville; if you’re on Highway 6, you’ll be routed to Bryan-College Station.”

The ability to evacuate the county ahead of hurricane has long been in question, even among some emergency management officials. For one thing, the state does not now have authority to order people to leave, as officials can in such places as Florida.

There are moves afoot in Austin to change that, according to some sources.

Under the new plan, when evacuations are recommended for a given Galveston County area, the specific evacuation route will be mandated and residents will be required to continue to the destination where shelters will be prepared.

Tim Kidwell, who directs disaster services for the Greater Houston Area Red Cross, was born on Galveston and experienced Carla in 1961, to which his family lost their house.

“There will be no shelters in Galveston County,” Kidwell said. “It’s important to plan today.”

Ed Rappaport of the National Hurricane Center said that although storm surge was the major direct killer associated with hurricanes, many more deaths could be attributed to accidents during preparation and post-disaster cleanup.

Last year 60 people died in hurricanes.

“Ninety-two indirect deaths occurred in the state of Florida — that’s 50 percent more than due to direct hurricane causes in all of the U.S.” He lists electric power, motor vehicle accidents and stress as the secondary causes of death.

[dhweather]

That's a pretty strong statement to make. Neil Frank knows his stuff,
but nobody can predict landfalls this far in advance.

[Cookiely]

That's a pretty strong statement to make. Neil Frank knows his stuff,
but nobody can predict landfalls this far in advance.

He did say -IF past history is any indication which is his basis for predicting more hurricanes for Texas.

[vbhoutex]

I trust Dr. Neil above anyone out there at this time. He did not say we would have that many landfalls, but he indicated that we are entering a more active period similar to a previous one and which saw many landfalls in Texas and several major landfalls. What he is saying is not too far off from what others have indicated in some other articles I have read. He just put some analog behind it the others haven't, which worries me even more. I'm not panicing or anything like that, but Dr. Neil is one of the very best and I listen to him long before I do anyone else. When I talked to him at the 2003 conference here I asked about El Nino, La Nina and what he thought was coming. His statement was neither, it will be a "La nada" or neutral Enso and he was right on about it. At that time no one was saying we would have a "la nada".

[MGC]

Neil Frank knows his stuff. I still wish he was at the NHC.....MGC

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I agree MGC.

Also with all those under water volcano's no wonder it is warmer.

[donsutherland1]

Dave,

A thought to consider...

In all the years (1950-2004) where the April TNA (Tropical North Atlantic Index) came in at or above +0.500 (2005: +0.850), a combined total of 20 hurricanes made U.S. landfall. 16/20 (80%) made landfall in the GOM region. So, certainly the warm TNA is yet another factor that argues for the possibility of landfalling activity in the GOM region, including possible Texas landfall. Of course, we'll have to see how the synoptic pattern sets up, but the above info. is something to consider.

[vbhoutex]

Don,
Thanks again for your additional input to this discussion. I always value your input as it is always well thought out, usually teaches me something, and ALWAYS adds to the discussion at hand.
I just wish we weren't seeing the "signs" we are seeing this year that appear to indicate more GOM landfalls. I continue to watch the evolution of the pattern of fronts/troughs coming in from our W/NW/N and do not like what I see. As opposed to last year, they seem to be on a more E-W lay as opposed to a NE-SW lay like last year, which says to me that any systems that do make it into the GOM would have a tendency to go further West. We on the Western/Northwestern GOM coast were, imo, somewhat protected last year by the weather pattern and I do not see it as being that way or at least not as strong as it was last year. Can you comment on that Don?(or anyone else)

[dhweather]

I trust Dr. Neil above anyone out there at this time. He did not say we would have that many landfalls, but he indicated that we are entering a more active period similar to a previous one and which saw many landfalls in Texas and several major landfalls. What he is saying is not too far off from what others have indicated in some other articles I have read. He just put some analog behind it the others haven't, which worries me even more. I'm not panicing or anything like that, but Dr. Neil is one of the very best and I listen to him long before I do anyone else. When I talked to him at the 2003 conference here I asked about El Nino, La Nina and what he thought was coming. His statement was neither, it will be a "La nada" or neutral Enso and he was right on about it. At that time no one was saying we would have a "la nada".

La Nada - that's funny!

His quotes are priceless - he had more enthusiasm and vigor than any
other NHC director. He got your attention, which is critical.

[donsutherland1]

Dave,

That's a good observation. Certainly, the evolving upper air pattern also seems to favor the GOM for possible landfalling activity and recent experience of how the fronts have been aligning themselves seems to be consistent with that evolving pattern. I agree that there will likely be less "protection" this year than last.

[x-y-no]

I like Max Mayfield a lot, but Neil Frank will always be synonymous with the NHC in my mind. Anything he has to say on the subject of hurricanes I will take with the utmost seriousness.

Jan

[Skywatch_NC]

I've always liked Neil Frank...my top favorite in NHC history!

And quite an asset to Houston now!

[WhiteShirt]

Meteorologist worries about warm Atlantic

By Rick Cousins
Correspondent

Published May 28, 2005

PASADENA — Houston hurricane guru Neil Frank says a warming period in the Atlantic might make for an especially active season for the Texas Gulf Coast.

Meanwhile, the Texas Department of Public Safety says new rules will mandate where those fleeing will have to go if a hurricane does arrive.

“We’re in a new warm period in the Atlantic,” said Frank, meteorologist for Houston’s CBS affiliate KHOU Channel 11, in an interview Thursday at the annual National Weather Service workshop in Pasadena.

“During the last 10-year period like this, we had 12 hurricanes that struck Texas, and five of those were major.” said Frank, former head of the National Hurricane Center.

“If past history is any indication, I think we’ll start seeing significant increases in hurricanes in Texas over the next few years,” Frank said.

The workshop will be followed by a series of town meetings to be held in Galveston, Jamaica Beach and other cities around the county during the next few weeks.

One major change that will affect the entire county will be the use of specific evacuation routes.

“This new traffic management plan is forced routing,” said Clay Kenneley, regional liaison officer with the DPS.

“If you have some place you want to go, you need to leave before the plan is implemented,” he said.

“Otherwise, if you are on (state) Highway 146, you’re going to go to Lufkin; if you are on I-45, you are going to Huntsville; if you’re on Highway 6, you’ll be routed to Bryan-College Station.”

The ability to evacuate the county ahead of hurricane has long been in question, even among some emergency management officials. For one thing, the state does not now have authority to order people to leave, as officials can in such places as Florida.

There are moves afoot in Austin to change that, according to some sources.

Under the new plan, when evacuations are recommended for a given Galveston County area, the specific evacuation route will be mandated and residents will be required to continue to the destination where shelters will be prepared.

Tim Kidwell, who directs disaster services for the Greater Houston Area Red Cross, was born on Galveston and experienced Carla in 1961, to which his family lost their house.

“There will be no shelters in Galveston County,” Kidwell said. “It’s important to plan today.”

Ed Rappaport of the National Hurricane Center said that although storm surge was the major direct killer associated with hurricanes, many more deaths could be attributed to accidents during preparation and post-disaster cleanup.

Last year 60 people died in hurricanes.

“Ninety-two indirect deaths occurred in the state of Florida — that’s 50 percent more than due to direct hurricane causes in all of the U.S.” He lists electric power, motor vehicle accidents and stress as the secondary causes of death.

I'm sending this to our local paper. Do you have the link to this article? 146 is the evacuation route for my city. Thanks.

[vbhoutex]

Whiteshirt, I presume you are sending this to a local paper as opposed to the Houston Chronicle. I think it appeared in the Chronicle the day after the Hurricane Conference here. You should be able to find it in their archives I would think.

[WhiteShirt]

Yes, to the local paper in Baytown. Thanks!

[Cookiely]

Meteorologist worries about warm Atlantic

By Rick Cousins
Correspondent

Published May 28, 2005

PASADENA — Houston hurricane guru Neil Frank says a warming period in the Atlantic might make for an especially active season for the Texas Gulf Coast.

Meanwhile, the Texas Department of Public Safety says new rules will mandate where those fleeing will have to go if a hurricane does arrive.

“We’re in a new warm period in the Atlantic,” said Frank, meteorologist for Houston’s CBS affiliate KHOU Channel 11, in an interview Thursday at the annual National Weather Service workshop in Pasadena.

“During the last 10-year period like this, we had 12 hurricanes that struck Texas, and five of those were major.” said Frank, former head of the National Hurricane Center.

“If past history is any indication, I think we’ll start seeing significant increases in hurricanes in Texas over the next few years,” Frank said.

The workshop will be followed by a series of town meetings to be held in Galveston, Jamaica Beach and other cities around the county during the next few weeks.

One major change that will affect the entire county will be the use of specific evacuation routes.

“This new traffic management plan is forced routing,” said Clay Kenneley, regional liaison officer with the DPS.

“If you have some place you want to go, you need to leave before the plan is implemented,” he said.

“Otherwise, if you are on (state) Highway 146, you’re going to go to Lufkin; if you are on I-45, you are going to Huntsville; if you’re on Highway 6, you’ll be routed to Bryan-College Station.”

The ability to evacuate the county ahead of hurricane has long been in question, even among some emergency management officials. For one thing, the state does not now have authority to order people to leave, as officials can in such places as Florida.

There are moves afoot in Austin to change that, according to some sources.

Under the new plan, when evacuations are recommended for a given Galveston County area, the specific evacuation route will be mandated and residents will be required to continue to the destination where shelters will be prepared.

Tim Kidwell, who directs disaster services for the Greater Houston Area Red Cross, was born on Galveston and experienced Carla in 1961, to which his family lost their house.

“There will be no shelters in Galveston County,” Kidwell said. “It’s important to plan today.”

Ed Rappaport of the National Hurricane Center said that although storm surge was the major direct killer associated with hurricanes, many more deaths could be attributed to accidents during preparation and post-disaster cleanup.

Last year 60 people died in hurricanes.

“Ninety-two indirect deaths occurred in the state of Florida — that’s 50 percent more than due to direct hurricane causes in all of the U.S.” He lists electric power, motor vehicle accidents and stress as the secondary causes of death.

I'm sending this to our local paper. Do you have the link to this article? 146 is the evacuation route for my city. Thanks.

Here's the link.
http://www.galvnews.com/story.lasso?ewc ... ba09967f7a