"Some fluctuations in intensity are likely before landfall"
We've all seen this line time and time again, published when a major hurricane is with 24 hours of landfall. Many times, we see it when the official forecast is for a storm to experience some weakening before landfall, but to remain on the safe side, they take the path of least regret.
It varies depending on how close a storm is to landfall. If a storm is out in the middle of the ocean with a particular expectation of weakening, they will state that expectation explicitly. But when lives are at stake, they'd rather broadbrush "fluctuations."
Question is, is there a preferable way to do this? If the NHC has a pretty good handle that more chances than not, a storm is going to weaken before landfall, and more chances than not, it ends up doing so, this creates potential problems. First of all, it makes people think they've experienced a stronger hurricane than they have (e.g. Opal, Ivan), meaning that their future expectations are not in line with reality in terms of what a particular strength of storm can do. Second, if the storm does weaken and people are aware of it, they misperceive the skill of the NHC (e.g. "the NHC said it was comin' in at 145, but it only hit at 115").
So how can we realistically convey the strength change that is actually expected, account for the remaining uncertainty of intensity forecasts, and inform the public in a manner that doesn't negatively influence future actions? What about listing a range of potential windspeeds at a 24 hour period. Is the NHC accurate enough to call a windspeed within one standard deviation? For example, instead of saying "fluctuations are expected" for Ivan, I believe they had enough skill to foresee that "Ivan is expected to hit with winds anywhere between 115 to 135 mph." Or with Charley, I believe they knew conditions were right for the type of intensification for which they could have said, "Charley is expected to hit with winds between 115 and 150 mph." That way, people know the current intensity but also the realistic possibilities of what they can expect, both best case and worst case.
"Some fluctuations in intensity are likely"
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"Some fluctuations in intensity are likely"
Last edited by tallywx on Wed Jun 01, 2005 9:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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