My discussion(Unoffical)

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Tropical weather disco
6-6-2005

Headline
Two interesting areas of tropical weather to watch....


1#
Eastern Caribbean system...Over the past 24 hours the chances of a tropical cyclone has been shown. Starting with the 00z 6-5-2005 which shown a weak low pressure moving north of Hati. The 06z,12z,18z in then the latest 00z Gfs has shown a ever strong system. Each model shows it moving more northward.

A tropical wave on the 5th of June. Moved into the Caribbean. Which with a upper low to the west had helped to the Development of convection. The area of convection as of tonight has developed some fair curving.(Favable shape for development.) Also as the upper low moves off the outflow jet released from the eastern side of the upper low will increase outflow over the system.


At this time a area of convection has formed around around 14 north/65 west. Which the Cmc,Gfs,MM5 agrees where this system will likely develop. Currently the system has a large scale cirulation covering from 67 to 62 west/18 to 12 north...The system has also started to develop its own outflow over the northern side of this.

The Ir satellite will show where the broad pressure has started to develop(14 north/65 west). Also where the upper level low or kicker.(South of Hati 72 west)
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

The water vapor shows where the upper low is. In also shows where the upper high is starting to form over the system. Also the outflow the upper low is forming north of the system.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/WV/20.jpg

That is perfect shape form a developing system. This shear map clearly shows what I'm stating. With 10 to 15 knot shear over our system.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF

The Gfs model doe's not even hint(In the seasurface pressure map)Of its development intill 42 hours.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... =Animation

While the 950 Vort maps show the first signs of it now...It stays a really weak system intill around 36 to 48 hours. With not much movement. Then it pulls north around 72 to 78 hours.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... =Animation

Back to the Seasurface pressure maps show a ridge of high pressure developing to the north of the cyclone around 72 hours. Which should slow its northward movement. This ridge breaks around 108 to 120 hours. Which should allow the cyclone to become a fish. Also take a look at the 950 vort map which shows a kind of elongated system. Which is because the Gfs can not make up its mind where it will be. Reason for that is because one shows that the ridge to the north is stronger then what the main thinking is. The CMC agrees with a more northward track. In a strong cyclone.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... =Animation

Whats weird is a piece of energy, which could easly be another track (Which means if the ridge to the north is much stronger then thought) Then it brings the system westward.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc ... 00/60.html

Also the MM5 shows the development of a system.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/mm5 ... 600/8.html
The MM5 FSU shows a track more westward
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/mm5 ... 00/14.html

2#
Watching the possible western Caribbean system...

Both Gfs in Cmc shows a cyclone forming out of the western Caribbean. The Cmc shows the development around 102 hours. In then takes it into the Gulf. The cmc takes it north then turns it to the northeast near 144 hours. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... =Animation

The Gfs agrees with this up to 108 hour time frame. In then moves the system into the central Gulf.

The Cmc track
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc ... 00/83.html

The Navy model
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ngp ... 12/78.html


So My final thoughts is I think we will have a tropcal cyclone out of the first system. This system could very well get qute strong...In it "should" Move to the north in become a fishy!!!

The second system is still to up in the air. But could be a Tropical storm Bill like storm.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I looked back 20 years. In no system has developed over the Eastern Caribbean in June.

A update the upper level shear is now below 10 knots. Which means it is Favable. The cirualtion has become better shaped'/Defined. The center is more to the East around 63 west. Lets see if we can get a cyclone out of this.

[rainstorm]

thanks for the info. there is some chance for development

[rainstorm]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... hour=144hr