6-7-05 TWD 2:05 PM EDT, Computer Models too aggressive!

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUN 07 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

EAST ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 23W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 10
KT. PROBLEMS WITH MET-7 AND MET-8 IMAGERY THIS MORNING HAVE
ESSENTIALLY MADE US BLIND OVER THE E ATLC AND AFRICA...BUT THE
EXTRAPOLATED WAVE POSITION SEEMS TO BE GOOD WITH THE UPPER
SOUNDINGS AT DAKAR AND SAL (SAL'S LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFTED FROM
NE TO E OVER THE PAST 24 HRS). THE POSITION ALSO MATCHES WELL
WITH THE 700 MB REL VORT FIELD PROVIDED BY THE GFS. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF THE ITCZ FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN
13W-22W.

TROPICAL WAVE PUSHED AHEAD TO A LINE FROM THE VENEZUELA/GUYANA
BORDER NE ACROSS BARBADOS TO NEAR 19N56W...MOVING W 15 KT.
ALTHOUGH THIS WAVE HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ACROSS THE OPEN
ATLC...IT HAS BECOME MUCH MORE EVIDENT AS IT ENTERS THE
CONCENTRATED OBSERVATION NETWORK NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES.
FRENCH BUOY 41100 HAD LIGHT NE WINDS AT 1200Z WHICH BECAME E
THEN SE BY 15Z...AND THE BARBADOS SOUNDING INDICATED SW WINDS 15
KT AT 700 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION HAS BEEN DEVELOPING
JUST W OF THE AXIS...AS IT ENTERS A DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW
REGIME...FROM 9N-17N BETWEEN 58W-63W WITH SHOWERS CURRENTLY
BEING REPORTED AT TRINIDAD AND GRENADA.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 77W S OF 18N MOVING W 15
KT. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE APEX OF THE WAVE IS
BEGINNING TO MOVE ACROSS JAMAICA BUT CONVECTION IS QUITE LIMITED
NEAR THE AXIS WITH ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN
75W-78W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 94W HAS MOVED SW OF THE AREA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N10W 9N22W...THEN ALONG 9N26W
6N30W 6N45W 12N57W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION 180
NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 29W-47W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 3N-9N
BETWEEN 47W-50W.

.DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHARP MID/UPPER TROF IS LOCATED ACROSS THE E GULF OF MEXICO
FROM THE FL PANHANDLE SW TO THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET RUNNING FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS NE
ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC. THE JET RUNS BY AN AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND IS DRAWING DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE NEWD OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND S FLORIDA...BUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF W OF 86W IS UNDER A GENERALLY SUBSIDENT
ENVIRONMENT. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION MOVED
S OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST THIS MORNING BUT HAS SINCE DISSIPATED
OVER THE CNTRL GULF WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE WAKE
OF THIS ACTIVITY ABOUT 120 NM S OF MOBILE ALABAMA. IN THE SHORT
TERM...THE UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA UNTIL THU/FRI
AND WILL KEEP THE MOST PLENTIFUL MOISTURE SUPPLY OVER THE E GULF
AND FLORIDA. SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...NAMELY THE GFS AND
CANADIAN MODELS...BRING A STRONG LOW NWD OUT OF THE NW CARIBBEAN
EARLY FRI BUT AT THIS TIME THIS SCENARIO APPEARS A BIT TOO
AGGRESSIVE.

CARIBBEAN...
A SFC TROF OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM HONDURAS TO THE W TIP OF
CUBA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 81W-85W...AS WELL AS
NEWLY-DEVELOPING TSTMS HEADING W FOR THE MAYAN RIVIERA.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD MONSOON-LIKE GYRE CENTERED OVER
HONDURAS WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING PULLED IN FROM THE E
PACIFIC. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS BOTH
DEVELOP A LOW OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT 24
HRS...BUT THIS MAY BE AN ARTIFACT OF THE MODELS' HANDLING OF THE
CONVECTION. REGARDLESS...DEEP CONVECTION IS ALREADY OCCURRING
OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND THE CURRENT PATTERN COULD SUPPORT
HEAVY RAIN SPREADING OVER PARTS OF THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS EVEN
IF A LOW DOES NOT DEVELOP. FARTHER E...A WEAKENING MID/UPPER LOW
IS LOCATED NEAR THE MONA PASSAGE AND CONTINUES TO FOSTER
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN
65W-71W EVEN THOUGH THE TROPICAL WAVE WHICH CAUSED THE DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS MOVED ON TO THE W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE ALSO MOVING ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH MOISTURE BEING LIFTED NEWD INTO THE ATLC
BASIN.

ATLANTIC...
WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE W ATLC WATERS IS HIGHLIGHTING THE
PRESENCE OF MULTIPLE LOWS AND TROF...NONE OF WHICH ARE CAUSING
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. A 1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 22N54W
WITH A TROF EXTENDING NE TO 28N48W WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING WITHIN 150 NM NE OF THE LOW. A 1014 MB
LOW IS NEAR 29N61W AND ANOTHER TROF IS JUST TO THE SE ALONG
25N64W 30N56W. OTHER WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED N OF
HISPANIOLA FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 67W-74W ALONG WHAT IS CALLED A
"SCREAMING EAGLE"...AND THIS MAY BRING SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS
TO PARTS OF THE BAHAMAS LATER TONIGHT AS IT MOVES W. TO THE
E...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF IS OVER THE CNTRL ATLC ALONG 32N38W
21N37W WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS UP TO 350 NM TO THE E. BROAD SWLY
FLOW EXTENDS E OF THE TROF FROM THE TROPICS ACROSS THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS TO THE COAST OF AFRICA.