Florida Thank the Atlantic Ridge This Time

StormChasr · #21 Postby **StormChasr** » Wed Jun 08, 2005 11:54 pm

Now DR Gray has mentioned that we are returning to an active period like the 1940s. It is possible IMHO

Nah. 4.5 Trillion to 1 against a repeat of 2004. Hurricanes don't repeat in predictable patterns, otherwise landfall forecasts would be easy, and there would be no anguish about wondering where they'd go every year. One decade of hyperactivity for one region doesn't make for a logical repeat--that is the same flawed statistics that render models such as the GFS useless in long term predictions.

Anonymous · #22 Postby **Anonymous** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 12:13 am

Here is a history narrowed down to one small unlikely hit region of NE Fla/SE Ga (NWS Jax responsibillity area) since the 1500s and as you can see, the recent Lack of activity in this area is the exception rather than the rule. If this was for S fla or gulf coast fla, I am sure this report would be much more full of activity.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/history/index.html

AussieMark · #23 Postby **AussieMark** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 3:04 am

StormChasr wrote:
If seeing 11 hurricanes hit Florida for 7 years in a row does'nt wake you guys up nothing will.

Yeah, it wakes me up to the fact that according to the laws of probability, that would be highly UNLIKELY to repeat itself. Unless you reject the SCIENCE of probability for guess-casting that the 1940's will repeat themselves in an almost deja-vu kind of pattern?

Normandy wrote:Whatever cyclonaut....despite all that convincing data you just showed me...it still can't happen again.

OrlandoDad · #24 Postby **OrlandoDad** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 6:55 am

As if often the case with developing systems in the eastern Gulf, Central Florida stands to catch quite a bit of rain with this one. Not likely to get a direct hit here, but I expect some downpours.

Nearly all of the convection is to the east of the center of Arlene, and it will probably stay that way unless she strengthens pretty quickly.

Aquawind · #25 Postby **Aquawind** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 7:01 am

Ohhh it's going to Start in the Keys Shortly.. :eek:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kbyx.shtml

Paul

jabber · #26 Postby **jabber** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 7:52 am

Like they say it not if its when.......

Jekyhe32210 wrote:
StormChasr wrote:
If seeing 11 hurricanes hit Florida for 7 years in a row does'nt wake you guys up nothing will.

Yeah, it wakes me up to the fact that according to the laws of probability, that would be highly UNLIKELY to repeat itself. Unless you reject the SCIENCE of probability for guess-casting that the 1940's will repeat themselves in an almost deja-vu kind of pattern?

Now DR Gray has mentioned that we are returning to an active period like the 1940s. It is possible IMHO

StormChasr · #27 Postby **StormChasr** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 8:22 am

ow DR Gray has mentioned that we are returning to an active period like the 1940s. It is possible IMHO

NO, Dr. Gray doesn't mention that at all. He mentions that we are going to have an active season (it already is). Therefore, he's already correct. He doesn't predict landfalls, as he'd be wrong as often as he'd be right, or more so.

#28 Postby **LSU2001** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 8:27 am

I thought dr. grey did discuss the "Active Period" when talking about the warm and cool periods in the Atlantic basin. I seem to remember him discussing the 20-40 year cycles of strong activity and lower activity and him saying that we are now in the active cycle. You are absolutly correct about the landfalls though. I may be wrong so comments welcome as always.
Tim

StormChasr · #29 Postby **StormChasr** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 8:32 am

Yes, we are unquestionalbly in a "warm SST" cycle, and more cyclones are born during warm sst periods. Where they will go is open for debate every year. If we knew for sure, then much suffering and tragedy could be prevented. Unfortunately, hurricanes are not very predictable in their tracks. Some people think that 2004 was the new "landfalls." However, it has been classified, along with 1886 (the last time a state had 4 landfalling hurricanes) as a 200-500 year event. Thus ,it falls into the category of an anomaly far more logically than a norm, by definition.

#30 Postby **sponger** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 9:00 am

I think cyclonaut makes a convincing argument. Saying it cant happen again is the same logic that an area is overdue. One years storm doesnt know what the previous years did.

Also, when looking at 50-100 years of weather and using statistics over that time period is like watching 100 years of geology. Almost worthless in the bigger scheme of things.

AussieMark · #31 Postby **AussieMark** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 9:03 am

but using the same analogy its bullish to say that since Florida had 4 hurricanes last year that they are safe this year.

#32 Postby **tracyswfla** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 9:05 am

Has this ridge built yet?

cyclonaut · #33 Postby **cyclonaut** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 9:24 am

A repeat of the 40's may happen again sometime for Florida or it may not.

Who knows???

Dr.Gray doesnt know & I can say with assurance that StormChasr doesnt either.

#34 Postby **EmeraldCoast1** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 10:21 am

Ummm. Excuse me, but Perdido Key, Pensacola, Ft. Walton, Destin and Panama City are part of Florida too.

slowjoe · #35 Postby **slowjoe** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 10:24 am

I do not agree with topic to this thread at all. Florida is going to get the worst of this system. I do not believe the ridge that is still developing in the Atlantic going to have any impact on moving this storm further west. Even if the center of circulation hits the florida panhandle all of the convection will remain well east and directly on top of the florida penninsula.

There is also a HUGE amount of dry air rushing in from the north over the GOM which is preventing any buildup on the west side of this system. Looks like I will have to cancel my tee times in Gainesville.

PTrackerLA · #36 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 10:24 am

EmeraldCoast1 wrote:Ummm. Excuse me, but Perdido Key, Pensacola, Ft. Walton, Destin and Panama City are part of Florida too.

Yes they are! Some of the finest beaches pre-Ivan too

. Some family friends of mine had their condo destroyed on Pcola beach, going to miss visiting there during the summers...

PTrackerLA · #37 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 10:26 am

slowjoe wrote:I do not agree with topic to this thread at all. Florida is going to get the worst of this system. I do not believe the ridge that is still developing in the Atlantic going to have any impact on moving this storm further west. Even if the center of circulation hits the florida panhandle all of the convection will remain well east and directly on top of the florida penninsula.

There is also a HUGE amount of dry air rushing in from the north over the GOM which is preventing any buildup on the west side of this system. Looks like I will have to cancel my tee times in Gainesville.

You will definately get some rain in Gainesville but whether you will receive the worst is questionable. All depends on how much she develops and how far west she makes landfall. If she become a strong TS/cat 1 cane and hit Mississippi you might be able to keep that tee time...

Website · #38 Postby **Brent** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 10:28 am

This should be "Florida Peninsula". Florida has a Panhandle. :wink:

The Peninsula's going to get a lot of rain though...

Florida Thank the Atlantic Ridge This Time

Don't Forget The Panhandle

Topic is completely wrong.

Re: Don't Forget The Panhandle

Re: Topic is completely wrong.

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