2 PM EDT=997 mbs Ship report

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Arlene Intermediate Advisory Number 9a


Statement as of 2:00 PM EDT on June 10, 2005



...Arlene moving northward over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico...
...Producing heavy rains and gusty winds over portions of Florida...

a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the northern coast of the
Gulf of Mexico from Grand Isle Louisiana to St Marks Florida...
including the city of New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain. A
Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. A
Hurricane Watch is also in effect from the mouth of the Pearl River
to Panama City Florida. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane
conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36
hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Dry Tortugas.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect from west of Grand Isle
Louisiana to Morgan City Louisiana. A tropical storm watch means
that tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area
during the next 36 hr.

Interests elsewhere in the eastern Gulf of Mexico and adjacent land
areas should closely monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 2 PM EDT...1800z...the poorly-defined center of Tropical Storm
Arlene was estimated near latitude 25.0 north... longitude 85.0
west or about 375 miles southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi
River and about 400 miles south-southeast of Pensacola Florida.

Arlene is moving toward the north near 13 mph. A gradual turn toward
the north-northwest with a slight increase in forward speed is
expected during the next 24 hours. On this track...the center of
Arlene will be approaching the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico
on Saturday. However...most of the weather associated with Arlene
will arrive much earlier than the center.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph...with higher gusts. Some
strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...and it is
possible that Arlene could reach hurricane strength before
landfall. Sustained winds of 45 mph...with gusts to 55 mph...were
recently reported at Dry Tortugas. An Air Force hurricane hunter
aircraft is currently approaching Arlene.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles...mainly
to the north and east of the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure...based on a ship observation...
is 997 mb...29.44 inches.

Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches are possible over
western and central Cuba. General 3 to 5 inch rains with isolated
heavier amounts to over 7 inches are possible across southern and
central Florida over the next 24 hours. Heavy rainfall associated
with Arlene will begin to impact the eastern and central Gulf Coast
region by Friday evening.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be
expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall.
Water levels are currently about one-half foot above normal tide
levels along the northern Gulf Coast.

Isolated tornadoes may occur over portions of southern Florida and
the Florida Keys today.

Repeating the 2 PM EDT position...25.0 N... 85.0 W. Movement
toward...north near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 60 mph.
Minimum central pressure...997 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
5 PM EDT.

Forecaster Knabb/Avila

[Rainband]

It looked north it is north. Glad I am not going blind

[cycloneye]

It looked north it is north. Glad I am not going blind

No you are not Johnnathan.

[HURAKAN]

Is the wind stimated? Because she could be stronger, RECON will say how strong she is.

[yoda]

Is the wind stimated? Because she could be stronger, RECON will say how strong she is.

We will soon find out...

[canegrl04]

Would appear that Arlene is headed for hurricane status

[yoda]

Would appear that Arlene is headed for hurricane status

Wouldn't be surprised to see Hurricane Warnings issued by 11 PM tonight...

[cycloneye]

Is the wind stimated? Because she could be stronger, RECON will say how strong she is.

In one hour or less we will know when the vortex message comes out.

[wxman57]

There are a lot of ships out there in the Gulf/Caribbean with very poorly-calibrated barometers. I wouldn't trust a single ship report as an indication of strengthening. For example, there was a ship down by Cozumel with a pressure of 1000 mb right next to Cozumel with a pressure about 4-5 mb higher this morning. Unless the ship that reported the 997 mb pressure has had its barometer calibrated recently, don't trust it.

Recon is on the way in, so we'll have a better idea soon. Looks to me like the center is closer to 25.5/85.3 at 2pm EDT, though, but it's a very broad open area with a squall to the east.

One additional note. I just went and looped the ship reports from the past 24 hours. I followed that ship back through the Florida Straights. As it moved through the Straights south of the keys, it was reporting a pressure of 1000mb while all reports around the ship were 1005 mb. So it appears to be reading low.