While Caribbean gets hot, a strong monster exits Africa...

[Hyperstorm]

And I'm not just talking about an explosion of convection, but a WELL-organized tropical wave with a mid-level low pressure system...and not only that. Convection is beginning to deepen significantly (SSTs are INCREDIBLE off Africa for June).

Don't get too excited though, warm SSTs is NOT all that you need for formation. The next step is to look at the Upper-Levels. NOT favorable out there right now. This system is the one that was picked up by the GFS as a developing system in the Eastern Atlantic. There is POTENTIAL with the strength of the system and its low-latitude (near 10N), plus warm SSTs in the mid-80s right off the coast.

If it weren't for the UL winds, I would almost guarantee some sort of development out there (even if its June)...

[wxcrazytwo]

Look impressive, but aren't SAL'S present at this time.

[Hyperstorm]

Good point.

I didn't factor the SAL into the equation because generally when there's strong subsidence in the Eastern Atlantic it is due to a STRONG High Pressure near the Azores which would be the norm this time of year, anyway. But, at this time the high pressure near the Azores is not as strong as normal and the current dry air seen NW of the wave is not representative of a strong SAL.

UL winds will be the main problem for this particular system...

[mf_dolphin]

I just looked at the water vapor and it's real dry west and north of the wave. It's going to have a rough time holding it together for the next day or so.

[Scorpion]

Looking great for June. Hope this holds together.