System in Caribbean

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boca
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System in Caribbean

#1 Postby boca » Tue Jun 14, 2005 7:38 am

System seems to be moving NNE,but building slowing west does that make any sense. Any insight on this.
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#2 Postby FWBHurricane » Tue Jun 14, 2005 10:18 am

To me, sometimes it looks like its moving NNE..but i think its stalled caused it hasnt moved from that place in a few days. Its been dying out..then exploding with convection..so i dunno what its doing.. :roll:
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loon
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#3 Postby loon » Tue Jun 14, 2005 10:21 am

It is possible the models just don't pick this up until data is inserted from a yet to be determined recon visit....

Does anyone know if this happens much? Do the models ALWAYS see a storm before it begins to develop?

cheers
loon
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#4 Postby Scott_inVA » Tue Jun 14, 2005 10:41 am

loon wrote:It is possible the models just don't pick this up until data is inserted from a yet to be determined recon visit....

Does anyone know if this happens much? Do the models ALWAYS see a storm before it begins to develop?

cheers
loon


No.

No, it doesn't. As the models calculate mathematical equations into the future, virtually always, yes.

Scott
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#5 Postby loon » Tue Jun 14, 2005 10:42 am

Cool, thanks for the answer...

cheers
loon
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#6 Postby Swimdude » Tue Jun 14, 2005 11:57 am

But still, can someone explain why this looks like it's drifting one way and building another? It seems that this system has been in the same spot for nearly 48 hours now. Where's it really going?
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#7 Postby Nimbus » Tue Jun 14, 2005 12:10 pm

There is an upper level trough just to the west of the surface low that has been shearing the convection. From the water vapor loop it appears that the trough will cut off and roll west as an ULL. This may explain why the convection from the surface low appears to be building west. I'm not sure if the surface low is stationary or if the shear boundary is just increasing convection in that area.
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#8 Postby LaBreeze » Tue Jun 14, 2005 12:28 pm

Local met just reported on the noon report that conditions are more favorable as it moves to the NW. He mentioned that we may need to keep an eye on this. Is it expected to move or drift to the NW?
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#9 Postby Brent » Tue Jun 14, 2005 12:54 pm

LaBreeze wrote:Local met just reported on the noon report that conditions are more favorable as it moves to the NW. He mentioned that we may need to keep an eye on this. Is it expected to move or drift to the NW?


Maybe initially and then turning N and NE around Jamaica.
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