Is This Accurate?

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
cyclonaut

Is This Accurate?

#1 Postby cyclonaut » Sun Jun 19, 2005 10:47 am

Florida Hurricane Strike Probability Statistics
Image


Figures courtesy of:

http://www.floridahurricane.net/
0 likes   

Scorpion

#2 Postby Scorpion » Sun Jun 19, 2005 10:52 am

Is that for this year or any given season? Hmm I thought that the probabilities for us were a little higher....
0 likes   

cyclonaut

#3 Postby cyclonaut » Sun Jun 19, 2005 11:01 am

I think its for any given season..But not sure though :?:
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38266
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

#4 Postby Brent » Sun Jun 19, 2005 11:26 am

Looks like just any season... Because NE FL as usual has the smallest chance.
0 likes   
#neversummer

clfenwi
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3331
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2005 12:54 pm

#5 Postby clfenwi » Sun Jun 19, 2005 11:42 am

It appears to be the odds of a hurricane landfalling at the particular spot in any given season. As such, it appears to be accurate.

However, the image is titled hurricane strike probabilities. To me that infers the probability of a hurricane hitting an area (regardless of where it comes from). Those odds are a far bit higher, of course. For example Jacksonville's odds shorten to ~ 1 in 20.
0 likes   

User avatar
jdray
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 853
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 10:07 pm
Location: NE Florida

#6 Postby jdray » Sun Jun 19, 2005 12:23 pm

Brent wrote:Looks like just any season... Because NE FL as usual has the smallest chance.



http://www.hurricanecity.com/city/jacksonville.htm

affected every 3.05 years by a TS or better. (backdoors not included)

42nd ranked city in the US and Carribbean.




We only have a limited history to go by, I would not go as far to say the NE Fl has the smallest chance as usual. That is based on assumptions and limited data gathering.
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/history/
0 likes   

User avatar
Swimdude
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2270
Joined: Mon Jul 26, 2004 11:57 am
Location: Houston, TX

#7 Postby Swimdude » Sun Jun 19, 2005 3:09 pm

The stats seem so vague... Are they talking about one season? This season? Or overall? Are they taking into consideration climatology at different times of the year, etc, etc, etc...
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: gib, Hammy, HurricaneRyan and 526 guests