8:05 AM EDT TWD Special Feature=1009 mb low

[cycloneye]

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS FROM 321N74W THROUGH A
1009 MB LOW IS NE OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 28N76W TO CUBA NEAR
22N80W. THIS SYSTEM IS BENEATH THE E EDGE OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WHICH COVERS PORTIONS OF THE GULF...NW CARIBBEAN...AND W
ATLC. STRONG DIFFLUENCE E OF THIS UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING AN
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM
23N-32N BETWEEN 67W-75W. SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HRS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES NNW TOWARD THE CAROLINAS.

That low is very small so we have to look very closely at the visible pics to locate it but I think it is a little more north than the position they gave here.Recon will have the last word about the system.

[Aquawind]

Recon will have the last word about the system.

Exactly.. Bring on Recon!

Dang qscat missed this morning as well..

Paul

[rainstorm]

if there is a low at 28n 76w it is very weak, small, and hard to find this whole thing has gotten very stretched out

[wxman57]

There's absolutely nothing there near 28N/76W on high-res visible or on surface plots. Winds to the west of that point (28N/76W) have been from the southeast all night. This is only a trof axis. No closed low. Here's a recent GARP image. Lowest pressure is along the coast of Florida, about 300nm west of the nearest convection..

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/disturb.gif">

[Derek Ortt]

if its a very small circ, the winds could be out of the SE 200km to the east of it. However, that also means it would be VERY succeptible to unfavorable conditions

[wxman57]

I see the 12Z models initialized near 29.8N/76W. I sure hope they don't waste my money flying recon today into this thing. Just a little wind and 25-35 mph wind for the east coast.

[x-y-no]

I see the 12Z models initialized near 29.8N/76W. I sure hope they don't waste my money flying recon today into this thing. Just a little wind and 25-35 mph wind for the east coast.

I was just looking at the zoomed visible sat images since sunrise, and there's a circulation there which I haven't yet quite figured out if it's mid-level or surface (I'm leaning towards the latter). It appears to be moving NNW, with maybe a bit more westerly trend in the last frame or two. It's over a degree removed from any convection.


I don't see anything like a surface circulation further south.

I'm sticking with my assesment of last night - there'll be some gales with the bands that go ashore in SC, but this thing doesn't have time to get its act together given the synoptic situation.

Jan

EDIT:

That's definitely a surface circulation, although it's a bit of a stretch to call the winds westerly on the south side - it's the lightest of west winds at best.

I'd put the center a tad further west - at around 29.8N 76.3W or so, but it's not exactly well-defined yet.

Nearest convection is about 120nm ENE, and there's still a significant southwesterly upper level flow, so I really don't see this thing wrapping in that convection.

If this is going to develop, I think it needs to lose this center and get another one closer to the convection.