New Orleans AFD - no significant attention to BOC

[dhweather]

000
FXUS64 KLIX 281937
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
235 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005

.DISCUSSION...
A BROAD TROUGH AT THE SURFACE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST GULF
TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY WET
WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS LIKELY A
REFLECTION OF THE BROAD WEAKNESS ALOFT WHICH HAS BEEN PERSISTENT
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS WEAKNESS ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FAIRLY STAGNANT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH
REGARD TO THE SURFACE TROUGH...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT
DIVERGENT ON THE HANDLING AND PLACEMENT OF THE MOISTURE AXIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ALTHOUGH THERE DOES SEEM TO SOME
BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE GFS TODAY RESULTING IN A
SLIGHTLY WETTER PATTERN. AS A RESULT...RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO RUN A
LITTLE HIGHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES MAINLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IN FACT...IF THE TREND OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE
IS CLOSE...RAIN CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE RAISED EVEN MORE FOR
WEDNESDAY IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. BY THURSDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH
LOOKS TO WEAKEN AS AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE EXTREME
SOUTHWEST GULF PUSHES WESTWARD. RAIN CHANCES THOUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLAY AS LINGERING BOUNDARIES AT THE SURFACE INTERACT WITH THE
PERSISTENT WEAKNESS ALOFT.

IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN FORECAST...THE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE COMING IN QUITE HOT. IN
FACT...DEPENDING ON THE DEW POINT TREND...HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
MAY DEVELOP. HOWEVER...THE CURRENT FORECASTED DEW POINT GRIDS SHOW
CONDITIONS REMAINING JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS WILL BE
SOMETHING THAT WILL HAVE TO MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS. CAUTION THOUGH SHOULD STILL BE EMPHASIZED WHEN
CONDUCTING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

OTHERWISE...THE MID TO LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD
BEGIN TO TREND CLOSER TO A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME AS A RIDGE
PATTERN OVER THE LOWER SOUTHWEST STATES TRIES TO MOVE EASTWARD
WHILE THE BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS WESTWARD AT THE SURFACE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 72 93 73 94 / 10 20 20 20
BTR 73 93 74 95 / 20 20 20 20
MSY 76 92 77 94 / 20 30 20 20
GPT 73 90 74 92 / 20 30 20 20
&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.
SE LA AND MS COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

[vacanechaser]

Dont doubt it. No real reason too. Should be inland in a few hours and probably have little or no affect on the weather there after moving inland.



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team