10:30 PM TWO=A little more Bullish with Caribbean system

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jun 30, 2005 9:11 pm

782
ABNT20 KNHC 010206
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA TONIGHT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA

#2 Postby **dhweather** » Thu Jun 30, 2005 9:14 pm

They do seem to be a bit more concered about this system
than earlier today.

Hmmmmmmmmm........

#3 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Jun 30, 2005 9:19 pm

Every week that we may think we will get a break, BOOM, somethings pops and there we are watching it.

I LOVE THIS STUFF!!!!! :lol:

Derek Ortt · #4 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Thu Jun 30, 2005 9:20 pm

and for the record here, I am still convinced this isnt doing anything at least through 48 as the dynamics are poor to horrid

maybe if a second TW moves into the area and provides a bit more convergence we will see something

#5 Postby **Stormcenter** » Thu Jun 30, 2005 9:36 pm

Oh well what can say.

I think the NHC knows the bread is
in the oven and ready bake. It's just
a matter of time.

southerngale · #6 Postby **southerngale** » Thu Jun 30, 2005 9:43 pm

Interesting...

#7 Postby **dhweather** » Thu Jun 30, 2005 9:47 pm

I have to agree with Derek - it's a nice area of convection, but
the dynamics just aren't quite right for development right now.

Again, the tropics are always subject to change on short notice,
so we should watch it. If the "blob" persists for a couple of days,
and the environment becomes a bit more favorable, then we
may have something.

#8 Postby **Stormcenter** » Thu Jun 30, 2005 9:51 pm

dhweather wrote:I have to agree with Derek - it's a nice area of convection, but
the dynamics just aren't quite right for development right now.

Again, the tropics are always subject to change on short notice,
so we should watch it. If the "blob" persists for a couple of days,
and the environment becomes a bit more favorable, then we
may have something.

The environment will become more favorable.

#9 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Jun 30, 2005 9:52 pm

dhweather wrote:I have to agree with Derek - it's a nice area of convection, but
the dynamics just aren't quite right for development right now.

Again, the tropics are always subject to change on short notice,
so we should watch it. If the "blob" persists for a couple of days,
and the environment becomes a bit more favorable, then we
may have something.

I'm partially in agreement with you, but Arlene didn't though about this when she formed.

Website · #10 Postby **Brent** » Thu Jun 30, 2005 9:57 pm

Hmmm... a spoiler for someone for 4th of July?

#11 Postby **Hurricanehink** » Thu Jun 30, 2005 9:57 pm

Might have a real bear watch

#12 Postby **bevgo** » Thu Jun 30, 2005 10:16 pm

It would be fun to have something to watch but I think Derek could be correct. Just MHO and not from any knowledge. Just from experience of blob watching every year--LOL

10:30 PM TWO=A little more Bullish with Caribbean system

10:30 PM TWO=A little more Bullish with Caribbean system

OK

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