11:30am TWO: Better Organized

[cycloneye]

AXPZ20 KNHC 021625 RRA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT JUL 02 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR 13N99W MOV W 10 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THIS SYSTEM IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING WITH BANDS OF MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM AND BEGINNING TO SPIRAL TOWARD A BROAD CENTER NEAR 13N99W. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

That discussion is for the EPAC system 93E invest and not for 96L in Caribbean.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The buoy to the southeast of the center has turned out of the south-southwest. While the buoy to the northwest of the center is north. This means that there is a broad LLC at the surface. Looking at visible the center is arond 17.5 north/83 west moving west-northwestward. The last few frames show that there is a increase an convection/Oreganizion.

[Hurricaneman]

It's a depression by tomorrow

[wxman57]

It's a depression by tomorrow

By tomorrow, it will be inland over the Yucatan, though. Any significant development would have to wait until Monday when its back over water. I'll post a GARP image in a second..

[Anonymous]

I think it may just clip the Yucatan.

[wxman57]

Any low pressure center that might be forming is going to be on the southern part of the wave, down around 16N-17N. It would have to travel toward about 340 degrees to clip the Yucatan from where it is now. Here are a couple of images. First, a GARP image. Again, my VPN connection from home doesn't allow full color images, so the satellite overlay sucks. But you can see where the major features are:

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/carib7.gif">

Now here's a high-res floater we put over the system with 1-deg lat/lon lines:

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/carib8.gif">

[wxman57]

One thought. Let's say YOU (any of you) where the project meteorologist for a multi-billion dollar project off the mouth of the Mississippi River. Let's say this project was at a very critical stage where they can't easily stop an operation that is slated to continue for 5-6 more days. You're the one providing the weather briefings 7 days a week, twice a day. They're depening upon YOU to decide whether to continue and risk damaging the billion dollar structure or to stop work and cost them millions of dollars.

What do you tell them? Do you tell them to stop work because the NAM shows it heading toward LA? Most global models say no development and forecast a track into Mexico. Your job/career and millions of dollars may be at stake.

That makes the forecast a little tougher, don't you think?

Well, I'm that lead meteorologist.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

By the buoys there doe's seems to be a broad area of low pressure forming near 16.5/82 west. In which case has develop convection. I would not put it past this system developing. Also the nhc is taking note of it becoming better oregnized. The buoys where the first to show that Bret had a surface cirulation. Also they where the first to show that 94L had a surface cirualtion. A recon is going out tomarrow what more do you need to watch it?

[wxman57]

Oh, you can bet I'm watching it 24hrs a day! It gets me real nervous. As for development chances, I think 20% is about right for now. I doubt that recon will fly tomorrow as that possible LLC formation area will be about 5 degrees farther west tomorrow - which will put it over the coast of Belize around mid day. It has a long way to go to develop an LLC. That convection just hasn't persisted. Remember Bret started out with lots of convection over the center. Bret spun off the coast of Mexico.

[drezee]

One thought. Let's say YOU (any of you) where the project meteorologist for a multi-billion dollar project off the mouth of the Mississippi River. Let's say this project was at a very critical stage where they can't easily stop an operation that is slated to continue for 5-6 more days. You're the one providing the weather briefings 7 days a week, twice a day. They're depening upon YOU to decide whether to continue and risk damaging the billion dollar structure or to stop work and cost them millions of dollars.

What do you tell them? Do you tell them to stop work because the NAM shows it heading toward LA? Most global models say no development and forecast a track into Mexico. Your job/career and millions of dollars may be at stake.

That makes the forecast a little tougher, don't you think?

Well, I'm that lead meteorologist.

Man that sucks! Good luck!!

[Wpwxguy]

Wxman, you had better get those boys packing. She'll head for the northern gulf. LOL Just kidding wxman, I know that you know your stuff and I trust your judgement. Just my observation, I think it will develop and possibly "possibly" impact the northern gulf. Guess we'll see in a couple days. There's no way in **** that I'd want to be in that position. We all know the weatherman gets blamed for whatever happens anyway. Can't win situation. If you want a job where you can come out on top, I say be a nascar driver. LOL Thanks for your input wxman.

[x-y-no]

Any low pressure center that might be forming is going to be on the southern part of the wave, down around 16N-17N. It would have to travel toward about 340 degrees to clip the Yucatan from where it is now.

Yes. that's my issue with the idea of a developing system that just clips the Yucatan and heads towards TX/LA. It seems to me that's too far north, and instead any closed circulation will be further south and miss the weaknes, heading into the center of the Yucatan instead.

Not a lot of model support for that, but this morning's CA grid run of the NASA SPORT WRF likes that idea:



Jan

[wxman57]

Wxman, you had better get those boys packing. She'll head for the northern gulf. LOL Just kidding wxman, I know that you know your stuff and I trust your judgement. Just my observation, I think it will develop and possibly "possibly" impact the northern gulf. Guess we'll see in a couple days. There's no way in **** that I'd want to be in that position. We all know the weatherman gets blamed for whatever happens anyway. Can't win situation. If you want a job where you can come out on top, I say be a nascar driver. LOL Thanks for your input wxman.

Yeah, this is a tough call. But it gets even tougher in September. I'm head of another project that needs a guaranteed 10-day no-hurricane-in-Gulf window to proceed with their operation. Anyone here feel confident enough to make a 10-day forecast of hurricane activity in the Gulf in September?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Why on earth do they need to build right in the middle of hurricane season??? Can They do it any other months like durning the Winter or spring. Sept is not a month to be building an the middle of the Gulf of Mexico. Also remember storms can fire up fast over the Gulf of Mexico...Like an 12 hours.

[x-y-no]

Wxman, you had better get those boys packing. She'll head for the northern gulf. LOL Just kidding wxman, I know that you know your stuff and I trust your judgement. Just my observation, I think it will develop and possibly "possibly" impact the northern gulf. Guess we'll see in a couple days. There's no way in **** that I'd want to be in that position. We all know the weatherman gets blamed for whatever happens anyway. Can't win situation. If you want a job where you can come out on top, I say be a nascar driver. LOL Thanks for your input wxman.

Yeah, this is a tough call. But it gets even tougher in September. I'm head of another project that needs a guaranteed 10-day no-hurricane-in-Gulf window to proceed with their operation. Anyone here feel confident enough to make a 10-day forecast of hurricane activity in the Gulf in September?

Ouch!

I don't think that's possible.