Texas under the gun, models say, but.....

[dixiebreeze]

that will change over the next 24 hours. Scroll down:

http://weather.net-waves.com/td96.php

[HouTXmetro]

that will change over the next 24 hours. Scroll down:

http://weather.net-waves.com/td96.php

So it should go further east? What makes you think it's going to change? Our NBC local mets did say it should affect Houston.

[dixiebreeze]

that will change over the next 24 hours. Scroll down:

http://weather.net-waves.com/td96.php

So it should go further east? What makes you think it's going to change? Our NBC local mets did say it should affect Houston.

It may affect Texas, but I'd wager the course will be more toward the NW GOM in the next several days. Just an observational hunch.

[HouTXmetro]

I'm sorry, our local NBC mets said is SHOULDN'T affect Houston and will probably hit somewhere from Central LA to the FL panhandle.

[tw861]

that will change over the next 24 hours. Scroll down:

http://weather.net-waves.com/td96.php

So it should go further east? What makes you think it's going to change? Our NBC local mets did say it should affect Houston.

It may affect Texas, but I'd wager the course will be more toward the NW GOM in the next several days. Just an observational hunch.

Last I checked, Galveston is about as far as the NW GOM gets.

[HouTXmetro]

I was thinking the same thing. I consider the NW Gulf anywhere from Matagorda TX to Morgan City LA.

[ROCK]

that will change over the next 24 hours. Scroll down:

http://weather.net-waves.com/td96.php

So it should go further east? What makes you think it's going to change? Our NBC local mets did say it should affect Houston.

I wouldnt put to much concern over the latest runs at least not until it enters the GOM. That is where a center can be fixed if it has one by then and recon can get its data. I wouldnt want to be the one to issue an "all clear" right about now for Texans along the coast. Freeport to LA needs to monitor this closely.

[HouTXmetro]

I think if the system moves on a more westerly course right now, it will be more likely to affect the North Central and NE Gulf Course. (More time to recurve sharply).

If it moves more to the Northwest right now. The threat will be to the Northwest Gulf. (By the time a system moves in to curve it east it will almost out of real estate.)

[skysummit]

I think if the system moves on a more westerly course right now, it will be more likely to affect the North Central and NE Gulf Course. (More time to recurve sharply).

If it moves more to the Northwest right now. The threat will be to the Northwest Gulf. (By the time a system moves in to curve it east it will almost out of real estate.)

What's making you think it will recurve so "sharply"?

[HouTXmetro]

I think if the system moves on a more westerly course right now, it will be more likely to affect the North Central and NE Gulf Course. (More time to recurve sharply).

If it moves more to the Northwest right now. The threat will be to the Northwest Gulf. (By the time a system moves in to curve it east it will almost out of real estate.)

What's making you think it will recurve so "sharply"?

Eventually most systems in up recurving. I thinking it may be influenced by a trough or something, just a wild guess. But is that High still set to set up over FL? That could really change things.

[ROCK]

I think if the system moves on a more westerly course right now, it will be more likely to affect the North Central and NE Gulf Course. (More time to recurve sharply).

If it moves more to the Northwest right now. The threat will be to the Northwest Gulf. (By the time a system moves in to curve it east it will almost out of real estate.)

What's making you think it will recurve so "sharply"?

Actually I think you have that backwards but I know what your saying. However remember alot of things come into play other than initial motion. IE stage of development, ULL, troughs, that make up the steering currents.

[vbhoutex]

The more WNW or W it moves the more of a threat it is to TX. The more NW or to the right of that it moves the less of a threat it is to TX. Current obs have the southern end of the wave already moving into Belize City so it appears that the WNW course is the one to count on at this point. Recurvature once it is in the GOM and when it develops is almost a given with the highs setting up like they appear to be. I do not, at this time, expect that recurvature to be a sharp one, but do beilieve that when this TC landfalls it will be on US soil and it will be moving somewhere from NNW to NNE. The set up of the highs will provide a "street" for the system to drive right to the coast. Where that street intersects the coast is the question.

[dhweather]

The overwhelming majority of systems recurve, particularly after they
get north of 30 degrees.


That current model scenario would be good, SE TX, LA and MS would all get rain!!

[GalvestonDuck]

With all the dry air we still have hovering over us here in SE TX, how could we possibly get this? (Not questioning anyone's predictions, just trying to learn.)

[HouTXmetro]

With all the dry air we still have hovering over us here in SE TX, how could we possibly get this? (Not questioning anyone's predictions, just trying to learn.)

I just think it's natures way of balancing itself out.