Interesting discussion from Jackson, MS NWS @ 2PM

[timNms]

THE NHC HAS AN AIRCRAFT SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS FEATURE MAY BE TAGGED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. WILL NEED TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AND ITS EVOLUTION DURING THE COMING DAYS. AS IT STANDS NOW...THE LATEST SUITE OF GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES THAT THIS FEATURE WILL MAKE STEADY PROGRESS IN APPROACHING THE GULF COAST BY EARLY TUE. THIS IS WHERE ANY AGREEMENT ENDS AS THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF DISPARITY REGARDING ANY POTENTIAL STRENGTH AND JUST WHERE THIS FEATURE WILL ENCOUNTER LAND (NO ONE PIECE OF GUIDANCE IS ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE ATTM). MY CURRENT ASSESSMENT LEANS HEAVILY ON THE 00Z/03 ECMWF AND THE 12Z/03 VERSIONS OF THE UKMET AND GFS. WHILE MID LEVEL WESTERLIES ARE ARE PROGGED TO BE A BIT WEAK... THE STEERING FLOW ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINATELY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WHILE IT IS STILL QUITE EARLY IN THE GAME...I EXPECT THIS DISTURBANCE TO BECOME INFLUENCED BY THIS FLOW AND AFFECT MAINLY THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF STATES. WHAT SUPPORTS THIS FURTHER IS THAT THE UPPER PATTERN IS TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A DISTURBANCE TO RIDE JUST TO OUR NORTH AND PUSH THE ABOVE MENTIONED SFC COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THIS SQUEEZE PLAY OF SORTS (FRONT ENTERING FROM THE NORTH...DISTURBANCE COMING IN FROM THE SOUTH) WILL KEEP OUR AREA UNSETTLED. [b][/b]

[tw861]

THE NHC HAS AN AIRCRAFT SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS FEATURE MAY BE TAGGED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. WILL NEED TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AND ITS EVOLUTION DURING THE COMING DAYS. AS IT STANDS NOW...THE LATEST SUITE OF GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES THAT THIS FEATURE WILL MAKE STEADY PROGRESS IN APPROACHING THE GULF COAST BY EARLY TUE. THIS IS WHERE ANY AGREEMENT ENDS AS THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF DISPARITY REGARDING ANY POTENTIAL STRENGTH AND JUST WHERE THIS FEATURE WILL ENCOUNTER LAND (NO ONE PIECE OF GUIDANCE IS ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE ATTM). MY CURRENT ASSESSMENT LEANS HEAVILY ON THE 00Z/03 ECMWF AND THE 12Z/03 VERSIONS OF THE UKMET AND GFS. WHILE MID LEVEL WESTERLIES ARE ARE PROGGED TO BE A BIT WEAK... THE STEERING FLOW ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINATELY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WHILE IT IS STILL QUITE EARLY IN THE GAME...I EXPECT THIS DISTURBANCE TO BECOME INFLUENCED BY THIS FLOW AND AFFECT MAINLY THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF STATES. WHAT SUPPORTS THIS FURTHER IS THAT THE UPPER PATTERN IS TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A DISTURBANCE TO RIDE JUST TO OUR NORTH AND PUSH THE ABOVE MENTIONED SFC COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THIS SQUEEZE PLAY OF SORTS (FRONT ENTERING FROM THE NORTH...DISTURBANCE COMING IN FROM THE SOUTH) WILL KEEP OUR AREA UNSETTLED. [b][/b]

Everybody wants a piece of the action.

[timNms]

THE NHC HAS AN AIRCRAFT SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS FEATURE MAY BE TAGGED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. WILL NEED TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AND ITS EVOLUTION DURING THE COMING DAYS. AS IT STANDS NOW...THE LATEST SUITE OF GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES THAT THIS FEATURE WILL MAKE STEADY PROGRESS IN APPROACHING THE GULF COAST BY EARLY TUE. THIS IS WHERE ANY AGREEMENT ENDS AS THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF DISPARITY REGARDING ANY POTENTIAL STRENGTH AND JUST WHERE THIS FEATURE WILL ENCOUNTER LAND (NO ONE PIECE OF GUIDANCE IS ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE ATTM). MY CURRENT ASSESSMENT LEANS HEAVILY ON THE 00Z/03 ECMWF AND THE 12Z/03 VERSIONS OF THE UKMET AND GFS. WHILE MID LEVEL WESTERLIES ARE ARE PROGGED TO BE A BIT WEAK... THE STEERING FLOW ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINATELY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WHILE IT IS STILL QUITE EARLY IN THE GAME...I EXPECT THIS DISTURBANCE TO BECOME INFLUENCED BY THIS FLOW AND AFFECT MAINLY THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF STATES. WHAT SUPPORTS THIS FURTHER IS THAT THE UPPER PATTERN IS TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A DISTURBANCE TO RIDE JUST TO OUR NORTH AND PUSH THE ABOVE MENTIONED SFC COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THIS SQUEEZE PLAY OF SORTS (FRONT ENTERING FROM THE NORTH...DISTURBANCE COMING IN FROM THE SOUTH) WILL KEEP OUR AREA UNSETTLED. [b][/b]

Everybody wants a piece of the action.

Sure looks that way, doesn't it? I'm pretty surprised by their discussion. Usually, they don't mention the tropics when something is this far out.

[dhweather]

I think the Jackson WSFO is onto something.......

[timNms]

I think the Jackson WSFO is onto something.......

I am inclined to agree with you.