Tropical System and TD3 Quick Hits

[MWatkins]

TD-3 looks awfully spread out this morning. As Mr. Pasch notes the center is likely/has reformed just over water on the north coast...but there is a lot of energy spread out to the NE of the system. Of course it's hard to tell how healthy a tropical system really is over land...but so far this is a bit of good news for the Gulf coast.

T-Wave east of the islands still looks organized but is running out of time. Even with the nice half-curved cloud-fatures NE of the cloud axis... once it gets into the eastern Caribbean the development window closes on it...especially given it's relatively low lattitude.

Be interesting to see if they plan any tasking on it today.

MW

[Anonymous]

I have to politely disagree with you Mike. I feel that the wave in the Eastern Caribbean could develop at any time, once it get's it's a center. Early in the wee hours this morning, you mentioned it could become an invest, and it had already been one since evening. Maybe the brats are keep you busy

As for TD-3, I think it is relocating north, and is about to exit the Yucatan. once it does, steady strengthening, IMO.

[MWatkins]

I have to politely disagree with you Mike. I feel that the wave in the Eastern Caribbean could develop at any time, once it get's it's a center. Early in the wee hours this morning, you mentioned it could become an invest, and it had already been one since evening. Maybe the brats are keep you busy

As for TD-3, I think it is relocating north, and is about to exit the Yucatan. once it does, steady strengthening, IMO.

I suppose the window for development doesn't completely closed...once it gets to the Central/Western Caribbean it has a decent chance to go...but development in the eastern Caribbean...climatologically...just doesn't happen. John Hope had a good rule that I always try to follow...if it's not a tropical cyclone by the time it gets to the Eastern Caribbean...you have to wait until it gets further west to develop.

As for Td-3 we will see. I believe the NHC has a pretty good intensity track out there right now...but of course there is always considerable uncertianty with any cyclone intensity forecast...especially with one over land...or maybe over water...when it's hard to discern the center location.

MW