12z Nogaps-Florida hit

[CycloneJim]

The overall structure of the strong tropical disturbance near 12N and 61W is quite impressive especially for early July in that region. The upper air pattern is more like mid-August, this is one big reason there appears to be further development for this system. Like the system that developed into hurricane "Charley" in the almost exact location last August 9th the current system has an impressive cloud structure. The southeastern Caribbean is usually a very hostile region for developing systems but some years for some reason they will overcome the negatives of that area.
Most guidance models bring at least tropical storm depending on its track near or over Hispanola to near south Florida toward the weekend. A lot will depend in the short term on where the low center establishes itself so the models can key in on the system's movement. In the longer term if it becomes a well developed storm the the strength and exact position of the mid-latitude trough along the eastern seaboard. We are talking about what the atmosphere has to offer in five to six days away, a lot can happen.
Jim Leonard

[wxman57]

There's a change in the 18Z GFS. This map is valid 7pm CDT Sunday. Doesn't mean that's where it's going, of course, but it's "interesting":

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/gfssunday.gif

[AL Chili Pepper]

[quote="wxman57"]There's a change in the 18Z GFS. This map is valid 7pm CDT Sunday. Doesn't mean that's where it's going, of course, but it's "interesting":

I'd say that's interesting all right. This hurricane season is already starting to not look so hot. dsoutherland was hinting that this might be a bad Gomer season. Looks like he might be right.

[vbhoutex]

Good observations Jim. Welcome to STORM2K!!! We are pleased to have you as a member here. I look forward to your insight and hopefully to some of your chase stories too!!!!

Unfortunately, IMO, this season is stacking up to be even more active than I imagined. WE are now looking at td#3 and possible td#4 within 24 hours and we are in the 1st week of July!! Like Jim said, the set up is more like August which isn't even the busiest time of the season historically. Hold on tight folks, it could be quite a ride.

[jabber]

Pretty much sums it up:

RRENT PATTERN WILL STILL BE IN PLACE.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE PROGRESS OF A TROPICAL
WAVE NOW MOVING WEST INTO THE LESSER ANTILLES. MODEL CONSENSUS
STILL SHOWS THIS FEATURE MOVING NORTHWEST THROUGH CUBA AND BAHAMAS
BY LATE WEEK...BRING AT LEAST ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WEATHER TO
SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE MOVEMENT...TIMING...AND INTENSITY OF
THIS FEATURE BY LATE IN THE WEEK. LATEST RUNS OF THE
UKMET...ECMWF...AND GFDL FAVOR AN OPEN WAVE TO THE SOUTH WITH
NORTHERN EXTENT THROUGH BAHAMAS AND STRAITS. DGEX RECURVES A CLOSED
LOW THROUGH THE BAHAMAS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST
GFS...NOGAPS...AND CANADIAN GEM MODELS SHOW A WEAK CLOSED LOW
MEANDERING PAST SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE GULF...MAINLY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. SPECIFIC IMPACTS WILL MATERIALIZE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS CERTAINTY GROWS CONCERNING THE PATH AND INTENSITY OF THIS
SYSTEM. FOR NOW...SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT RAIN IS A GOOD BET FOR THE
WEEKEND.

[CycloneJim]

The latest 00Z NHC models show a remarkable clustering of tracks from about Key Largo to Dry Tortugas. As this is five days in the future that show a lot of confindence in the model output.
The 12Z to the 18Z gfs showed a more westward trend, this was the same scenario as hurricane Ivan moved into the eastern to the central Caribbean last year. The east coast trough is shown to weaken and move out quicker as the atlantic ridge builds back in more than the 12Z run showed.
The 18Z gfdl model shows a scary scenario for Key West with the center of a 105mph cat-2 hurricane passing almost directly over the island. Im sure the next model run will look much different so stay tuned, this is going to be an interesting week or so for many from Florida to later along the Gulf coast.
Jim

[Foladar]

The latest 00Z NHC models show a remarkable clustering of tracks from about Key Largo to Dry Tortugas. As this is five days in the future that show a lot of confindence in the model output.
The 12Z to the 18Z gfs showed a more westward trend, this was the same scenario as hurricane Ivan moved into the eastern to the central Caribbean last year. The east coast trough is shown to weaken and move out quicker as the atlantic ridge builds back in more than the 12Z run showed.
The 18Z gfdl model shows a scary scenario for Key West with the center of a 105mph cat-2 hurricane passing almost directly over the island. Im sure the next model run will look much different so stay tuned, this is going to be an interesting week or so for many from Florida to later along the Gulf coast.
Jim

I don't like those, I live in Homestead, never really experienced a "hurricane" - just Frances but it wasn't too bad for us here at all. And I just bought baseball tix for Friday

[fci]

Very similar to Ivan in that the models show a turn to the North and crossing of Cuba.
More likely to pass south of Cuba and then takes its turn North.
Just my opinion and memories of many like this.
It is WAY too far south to really curve so much to the North.
And Key West RARELY gets a direct hit.....

[boca]

I think TD4 will follow TD3.