Determining Intensity at landfall...dennis

[docjoe]

I was surfing the Eglin AFB site which led to this question which I hope makes sense, so here goes....A major U.S. landfalling hurricane in July is a rare event (less than 10 I believe). Do the computer models factor this into their data or do they just use strictly current and future projected atmospheric conditions??? In other words would you expect historical guidance to be more accurate or the computer models. I know there are different types of models but I am unfamiliar with them.....my training is in medical science so all the mathematical computer stuff just makes my head spin!!!!

thanks alot

docjoe

[Radar]

docjoe,

I dont know that I'm the best person to answer your question. However, I do know that each model uses different variables when determining the track a hurricane takes, hence the varied and sometimes conflicting computer model tracks. That is a good question about whether or not one of the variables used when generating computer models is historical guidance. I don't THINK historical guidance is a variable when computing data to determine a track of a hurricane, although many meterologists will refer to historical data to help plot and understand the possible nature of a storm. Hopefully a "real" met will answer your question better then I can... but thanks for posting it does give one some food for thought!