Comparison Dennis/Ivan Track Guidance Errors. Take A Look.

[EmeraldCoast1]

I pulled a couple of advisories from Ivan last year to illustrate just how off the 3, 4 and 5 day forecasts can be. I used the eventual landfall, here in the Pensacola area, for my timeline...

SELECTED IVAN ADVISORIES:

The 11am NHC advisory 5 day forecast on Friday before Ivan hit us (5 days prior to landfall), called for the center of the storm to be 10 miles West of Tampa Bay and then up the West coast of the peninsula through Gainesville and up into Georgia. The guidance error swath stretched from Pascagoula to Andros Island, Bahamas. Things changed.

The 5 pm NHC advisory 3 day forecast on Saturday before Ivan hit us (4 days prior to landfall), called for the center of the storm to be at Cape San Blas / Apalachicola before moving inland through Tallahassee and then Northward. The guidance error swath stretched from New Orleans to Cape Canaveral. Things changed.

The 5 pm NHC advisory 3 day forecast on Sunday before Ivan hit us (3 days prior to landfall), called for the center of the storm to be at Tyndall AFB before moving inland through near Tallahassee and then Northward. The guidance error swath stretched from New Orleans to St. Augustine. Things changed.

It wasn't until Monday morning before the forecast really honed in on the eventual track. The 5 am NHC advisory 3 day forecast on Monday before Ivan hit us (2 days prior to landfall), called for the center of the storm to be South of the Alabama/Florida state line. The guidance error swath stretched from Intercoastal City, LA to Cedar Key, Florida. This was the first official forecast for Ivan that had the center passing either over us or to our West (putting us exactly in the center of the "cone").