12z candian... Still striking southeast florida....

[ericinmia]

REMEMBER, this is just one model. HOWEVER, it is the one that has predicted something that is occuring right now, that no other model was showing. It also handled Ivan the best, when the others were flopping around. Please refer to official forecast track and guidance though: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov


Here is a link to them all....
http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/model_for ... bal_e.html

If you are not sure how to read these panels, then your best bet is to just look at the lower right hand box.

24 HOURS:


36 HOURS:


60 HOURS:


I know i am going to be berated by people... but i didn't see this info posted yet.
Based on current heading, this is not that implausible.
Oh and to pre-answer the question, I had a huge bbq this weekend. So if i could make this go anywhere else i would.
-Eric

[HurryKane]

REMEMBER, this is just one model. HOWEVER, it is the one that has predicted something that is occuring right now, that no other model was showing.

What is the something (not being a smartbutt, I honestly don't know what you are referring to)?

[Brent]

A 1001 mb low into Florida... NOT a Sub-960 mb Dennis.

[ericinmia]

REMEMBER, this is just one model. HOWEVER, it is the one that has predicted something that is occuring right now, that no other model was showing.

What is the something (not being a smartbutt, I honestly don't know what you are referring to)?

The current NW heading...

BTW, Eastern Cuba is mountaneous.... it will kill storms!
thus obviously it won't emerge as a cat2!

Use some sense people.
-Eric

[Foladar]

I thought only central cuba was, not western cuba, if you remember Charley went through western cuba, not affected really at all.

he said east, not west cuba

[Tertius]

I thought only central cuba was, not western cuba, if you remember Charley went through western cuba, not affected really at all.

he said east, not west cuba

He edited it. It said West originally.

[jpigott]

i know there is little chance of this model verifying, but one thing i think it illustrates and what i think some people tend to forget (except for most Floridians on this board) is that the way in which florida is oriented (N by S) in comparison to the angle of approach from a storm to our S, it would not take much of a change in direction to significantly change where landfall could occur as we saw with Charley last yr. For example, if Dennis were to continue on this NW heading he would come periously close to Key West, but stay well offshore of FL west coast. A few degress further N and it comes up the middle keys and rides the FL west coast, a few more degrees Dennis splits the middle of the state, etc. Understandably many of us here in S FL are keeping a watchful eye on Dennis b/c 1) he is about a day-day1/2 closer to us than upper gulf coast and 2) any change in direction more northerly is going to have a significant impact on what type of weather we may see here in S FL

[ericinmia]

I thought only central cuba was, not western cuba, if you remember Charley went through western cuba, not affected really at all.

he said east, not west cuba

He edited it. It said West originally.

Yeah... sorry i had just gotten up from a couple hours rest.