Personal Forecast/Discussion 02 for 04L (Dennis)

[DoctorHurricane2003]

S2K DISCLAIMER: The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

PERSONAL DISCLAIMER: For all official information, please go to the National Hurricane Center website at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ . For all official local evacuation and hurricane preparedness information, please tune to your local television or radio station, their website, your local newspaper website, and/or visit http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ and follow the appropriate link to your local National Weather Service office.

GRAPHIC DISCLAIMER: The forecast graphic used is for visualization purposes only and is NOT in any way endorsed by NOAA, NWS, NHC, or S2K.

07.07.2005 0917 PM CDT

Dennis has intensified rapidly throughout the day today and is currently a strong category 3, and will most likely be a category 4 at 11 PM. The current movement is towards the northwest and should pass over west central cuba in 24 hours. Future forecast movement has changed little, with a microscopic shift to the right of the previous forecast. Currently, Dennis is slightly to the right of previous forecast. An upper level high over FL should retreat to allow Dennis to curve to the NNW by 48 HR. Landfall location is expected around the AL/FL state line. In terms of intensity, the forecast is shifted upward significantly. It is expected that Dennis should strengthen to minimal to moderate category 4 status by tomorrow and maintain that strength as it passes over Cuba. Once in the Gulf of Mexico, Dennis should begin rapid intensification phases and/or eyewall replacement cycles. It is noted on the forecast graphic as such that the intensity could vary between 105 KT and 150 KT due to these factors, but that the forecasted intensity is the best estimated at this time. It is also noted that Dennis is a very large hurricane, and effects from the storm can and are expected to reach more than 200 miles from the center. Also, the forecasted landfall position can vary greatly at 3 days, so it is noted that all persons along the Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the storm. It is imperative that persons along the gulf coast to begin preparing for the storm and making plans to evacuate if the need arises. Please stay tuned to your local television and/or radio station for official evacuation and preparedness information. Dennis is a very dangerous and deadly storm, so please do not take this situation lightly.

Forecast Graphic:

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Oops! The 120 HR forecast intensity is suppose to be 25 KT (30 MPH)....sorry! :\

[Hurricanehink]

Good forecast. You think it will get up to 155 area? Pretty bold, but I agree, if the shear lets off What are the odds for a cat. 5?

[DoctorHurricane2003]

It's possible, but not exceptionally likely.

[Mac]

Statistically speaking, the odds of Dennis gaining Cat 5 intensity are rather low. Then again, mother nature doesn't care much for statisticians. She tends to do as she dang well pleases.

If it weren't for the interaction with Cuba, I'd say Dennis might reach Cat 5. And if the Gulf waters were just a few degrees warmer, I'd say he might reach Cat 5. But considering Dennis has to contend with both Cuba and relatively cooler Gulf waters (compared to the warm Carribean waters he's been feeding on), I doubt he'll make it to Cat 5. I definitely think he has the potential to be a solid Cat 4 at landfall, but I rather doubt Cat 5.

This is only an opinion and not a forecast!