Anyone see the 12z NAM?

[loon]

Bad run or not, the 11am discussion was justified using the NAM, amongst others, so should it make another such run, you could hardly discredit it...however I would agree this run is pretty weird...

cheers,
loon

Cuz the NAM wasn't cracked out when they made the discussion. This run is to be discredited..

I agreed sir, I was simply stating should another run come out somewhat close, you could hardly discredit it.

What IS interesting at this point, is we may see a spread of the models now...WHICH IS STRANGE, considering the consensus that was pretty dead on up till now. You think the boards are out of control now, wait until the models have a 250-500 mile landfall spread on them, hehehehehe

cheers,
loon

[jax]

Look.... It's has the storm at 1004 mb to 1008 mb... how can
you take that seriously?

[jkt21787]

Look.... It's has the storm at 1004 mb to 1008 mb... how can
you take that seriously?

well some people took it seriously yesterday when it showed it that strong but moved it into FL...

[rsdoug1981]

The NAM was discussed because of it's superior handling of the ridge and especially the upper low/wave over Texas.

Dennis has not made landfall yet, the eye has to cross the coast and right now the eyewall is hugging it.

So Purdue,

To me it appears as if the NAM is weakening the high to the east of Dennis and then rebuilding it after Dennis crosses Cuba...Is this correct?

[loon]

Look.... It's has the storm at 1004 mb to 1008 mb... how can
you take that seriously?

Fine, I'll wait until it points to your house and then we can all the sudden "credit it" again. You're missing the point. Nobody (as of yet) has given THIS RUN any freaking credit, nor do I think they will. I am simply stating if another run goes out that direction, you have to atleast give it some thought, atleast the second run, or atleast I think so. Throw this one in the trash for all I care, I'm just saying if it does it again, remember this one that you threw in the trash, and if it goes back to where it was, then burn the trash can. Too often we either TOTALLY AGREE or DISCREDIT each and every run the second it comes out, without looking at those before and after it.....I'm just asking you guys to think, thats all..

cheers,
loon

[gkrangers]

The NAM was discussed because of it's superior handling of the ridge and especially the upper low/wave over Texas.

Dennis has not made landfall yet, the eye has to cross the coast and right now the eyewall is hugging it.

So Purdue,

To me it appears as if the NAM is weakening the high to the east of Dennis and then rebuilding it after Dennis crosses Cuba...Is this correct?

To me it looks like it strengthens the ridge behind Dennis alot...giving it that due west movement in the gulf.

[jax]

Look.... It's has the storm at 1004 mb to 1008 mb... how can
you take that seriously?

Fine, I'll wait until it points to your house and then we can all the sudden "credit it" again. You're missing the point. Nobody (as of yet) has given THIS RUN any freaking credit, nor do I think they will. I am simply stating if another run goes out that direction, you have to atleast give it some thought, atleast the second run, or atleast I think so. Throw this one in the trash for all I care, I'm just saying if it does it again, remember this one that you threw in the trash, and if it goes back to where it was, then burn the trash can. Too often we either TOTALLY AGREE or DISCREDIT each and every run the second it comes out, without looking at those before and after it.....I'm just asking you guys to think, thats all..

cheers,
loon

How on earth can you give credit to a model that initializes an
Hurricane at 1004 mb when it's currently less that 950 mb...

The NAM is forcasting a TD / TS to SLAM Florida or LA... what a disaster!
Just let go....

[PurdueWx80]

The NAM was discussed because of it's superior handling of the ridge and especially the upper low/wave over Texas.

Dennis has not made landfall yet, the eye has to cross the coast and right now the eyewall is hugging it.

So Purdue,

To me it appears as if the NAM is weakening the high to the east of Dennis and then rebuilding it after Dennis crosses Cuba...Is this correct?

To me it looks like it strengthens the ridge behind Dennis alot...giving it that due west movement in the gulf.

Yup, the 12z run does - but Stewart was referring to the 00z run as far as I can tell. The 12z ridge is more solid than the 00z's.

[loon]

The NAM was discussed because of it's superior handling of the ridge and especially the upper low/wave over Texas.

Dennis has not made landfall yet, the eye has to cross the coast and right now the eyewall is hugging it.

So Purdue,

To me it appears as if the NAM is weakening the high to the east of Dennis and then rebuilding it after Dennis crosses Cuba...Is this correct?

To me it looks like it strengthens the ridge behind Dennis alot...giving it that due west movement in the gulf.

Yup, the 12z run does - but Stewart was referring to the 00z run as far as I can tell. The 12z ridge is more solid than the 00z's.

Yes, the 00z run was used for Stewarts Discussion.

[gkrangers]

The NAM was discussed because of it's superior handling of the ridge and especially the upper low/wave over Texas.

Dennis has not made landfall yet, the eye has to cross the coast and right now the eyewall is hugging it.

So Purdue,

To me it appears as if the NAM is weakening the high to the east of Dennis and then rebuilding it after Dennis crosses Cuba...Is this correct?

To me it looks like it strengthens the ridge behind Dennis alot...giving it that due west movement in the gulf.

Yup, the 12z run does - but Stewart was referring to the 00z run as far as I can tell. The 12z ridge is more solid than the 00z's.

Yeah, the 00z run looked "good". The 12z run is a wee bit out in left field..but I guess the focus should be on the upper air dynamics and not the surface plots..

[loon]

Look.... It's has the storm at 1004 mb to 1008 mb... how can
you take that seriously?

Fine, I'll wait until it points to your house and then we can all the sudden "credit it" again. You're missing the point. Nobody (as of yet) has given THIS RUN any freaking credit, nor do I think they will. I am simply stating if another run goes out that direction, you have to atleast give it some thought, atleast the second run, or atleast I think so. Throw this one in the trash for all I care, I'm just saying if it does it again, remember this one that you threw in the trash, and if it goes back to where it was, then burn the trash can. Too often we either TOTALLY AGREE or DISCREDIT each and every run the second it comes out, without looking at those before and after it.....I'm just asking you guys to think, thats all..

cheers,
loon

How on earth can you give credit to a model that initializes an
Hurricane at 1004 mb when it's currently less that 950 mb...

The NAM is forcasting a TD / TS to SLAM Florida or LA... what a disaster!
Just let go....

Heheheh, you should listen to your own advice, but hey, its cool, you're are missing my point completely. Its known that models get intensity wrong and track correct sometimes, and sometimes vice versa, and sometimes they are on crack. I did not defend this track one bit, but you refuse to listen to my points, so I'll politely bow out of this arguement.

Cheers,
loon

[Steve]

What's kind of weird that the 12z NAM is doing is what Bastardi had alluded to on his video this morning - in the wake of Cindy, a reverse eddy is formed off the GA/NE FL coasts and builds in a strong ridge of high pressure. The NAM shows the boundary between what almost appears to be a feed into Cindy's remnants splitting off from the flow as she exits the New England coast. I say it's pretty implausible, but let's see if Dennis rides Cuba for a while. I don't see it. I see him basically on a constant NW heading per SSD. To me, things ain't looking good for Baldwin, Santa Rosa and Escambia Counties

Steve