July 9, 00Z GFS coming in - FL/AL line

[dhweather]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[AL Chili Pepper]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/index_ten_m_loop.shtml

I thought for the first few frames it was going to take it into FL.

[dhweather]

It jogs left towards landfall - the ridge is affecting the system, driving it NW.

[PTPatrick]

I think I am going to need a bigger boat...


This is not looking good for Jackson, Mobile, and Baldwin county

[Joseph]

Landfall farther east? Is that possible?

[dhweather]

I think I am going to need a bigger boat...


This is not looking good for Jackson, Mobile, and Baldwin county

No, its not.

And as long as Dennis keeps moving W to WNW over Cuba and the SE GOM, things will look worse for us.

[Ixolib]

I think I am going to need a bigger boat...


This is not looking good for Jackson, Mobile, and Baldwin county

No, its not.

And as long as Dennis keeps moving W to WNW over Cuba and the SE GOM, things will look worse for us.

But why, then, does everything from the NHC continue to insist on NW?

[tw861]

Errr...did anyone look at the initial point ? It's a little far south and it moves the storm NNW right off the bat which it's not doing according to the Key West Radar loop. So at six hours it's going to be too far east. If your six hour point is messed up the rest of the run is probably messed up.

[Ixolib]

Errr...did anyone look at the initial point ? It's a little far south and it moves the storm NNW right off the bat which it's not doing according to the Key West Radar loop. So at six hours it's going to be too far east. If your six hour point is messed up the rest of the run is probably messed up.

Yep!!

[dhweather]

I'm going to bed, tomorrow might be a long day.....

shutters, shutters, shutters

[Ixolib]

I'm going to bed, tomorrow might be a long day.....

shutters, shutters, shutters

Started on mine this afternoon - all will be ready to hang in short order... Sleep Tight!!

[mobilebay]

The nogaps and Canadian are dead on Mobile too. This is getting scary Now!
Here is the NOGAPS...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... rp&tau=048

And here is the Canadian...

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... 31_100.gif

[PurdueWx80]

Hmm...00z Canadian (regional and global) both show FL/AL line landfall.

GLOBAL
http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... 531_50.gif

REGIONAL
http://meteocentre.com/models/gemreg_00 ... _0000.html

[mobilebay]

Hmm...00z Canadian (regional and global) both show FL/AL line landfall.

GLOBAL
http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... 531_50.gif

REGIONAL
http://meteocentre.com/models/gemreg_00 ... _0000.html

Well Baldwin County Alabama. I consider 30 miles from mobile a direct hit. I don't knit pick 30 miles.

[PurdueWx80]

OH crap - you must've posted when I was typing everything in here. Sorry about that - didn't see it. LOL

[clfenwi]

Errr...did anyone look at the initial point ? It's a little far south and it moves the storm NNW right off the bat which it's not doing according to the Key West Radar loop. So at six hours it's going to be too far east. If your six hour point is messed up the rest of the run is probably messed up.

Disagree with the first charge (too far south). I think there may be a bit of an optical illusion with the way the L is written there. If you hand-draw a bullseye by drawing lines across the two axes of the innermost isobar, it matches up reasonably with the 0015Z satellite image (just north of the eastern end of the Gulfo de Batabano)

[mobilebay]

OH crap - you must've posted when I was typing everything in here. Sorry about that - didn't see it. LOL

I thought you was giving me a lesson on geography!