Thoughts on this?
"The initial motion estimate is 320/12. Upper-air data at 06z and
especially at 12z...along with water vapor imagery...indicate the
mid- to upper-level low over the extreme northwestern Gulf just
south of Louisiana is a little stronger than and larger than any of
the models were indicating at 00z and 06z. The NOGAPS model did not
capture this feature at all...and it and the GFDN models are the
only models that take Dennis toward southeastern Louisiana. It
would not surprise ME if the 12z models shift slightly to the right
given that the low is stronger than previously forecast...and that
the subtropical ridge axis has continued to shift northward and is
now located across southeastern Georgia to western Tennessee."
11 a.m. Discussion hinting at East adjustment later?
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