with a rapidly intensifying hurricane, while approaching a coastline. It is called momentum. A storm that has peaked, level, or is in decline is not nearly as bad. TS Cindy was exactly this way, as she came ashore. She was intensifying as she was making landfall, and was much more of a problem then was anticipated, from a mere tropical storm.
The same thing happened with Camille in 1969, as she approached the coast. She was deepening all the way into the coast and her destructive forces were compounded by the momentum she was developing.
Think of a snowball going down hill, as it picks up more mass.
Worse possible scenario setting up...
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NewOrleans
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TPACane04
excellent thoughts...this is compunded by the potential differences a landfall of 25-50 miles one way or the other.
examples... landfall just west of Mobile Bay is disaster for Mobile...and perhaps even Pensacola. A landfall similar to Ivan bails out Mobile a bit, but rocks Pensacola and FWB.
at this point, only a straight N shot away from Pensacola/Mobile/MS area is the only good thing that can happen...the further west it tracks, the worse we will see happen Sunday.
examples... landfall just west of Mobile Bay is disaster for Mobile...and perhaps even Pensacola. A landfall similar to Ivan bails out Mobile a bit, but rocks Pensacola and FWB.
at this point, only a straight N shot away from Pensacola/Mobile/MS area is the only good thing that can happen...the further west it tracks, the worse we will see happen Sunday.
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skysummit
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Well, according to FOX8 in the last 5 minutes, SE La. will have 15-25mph winds at most. St Bernard and Plaquemines a little higher. They also said the Miss. Gulf Coast will have 25-35mph winds. The way it looks to me is if Dennis doesn't begin to turn, landfall will be in Mississippi. I believe their winds will be a tad higher than 25-35 
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The local mets in New Orleans, except WWL-TV, are a joke. Especially Bob Breck and FOX-8. They did not even tell people to pick up things around the house. My neigbors all put the garbage out on the street the night of Cindy approaching. Fox-8 downpalyed Cindy and said we would probably not see much effects at all in New Orleans. They said we would get less than .5 of rain
and winds of maybe 25-30 mph. When Cindy was done, we had over 6 inches of rain and winds over 70 mph. There are still some homes witout power down here. This kind of bad reporting happens every year and I have learned to only follow the NHC for official information on Hurricanes and Tropical Storms.
and winds of maybe 25-30 mph. When Cindy was done, we had over 6 inches of rain and winds over 70 mph. There are still some homes witout power down here. This kind of bad reporting happens every year and I have learned to only follow the NHC for official information on Hurricanes and Tropical Storms.
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BigO
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Swimdude wrote:BigO wrote:I honestly don't know what Cindy's winds were...I slept through it.
Hahaha wow, THIS, my friends, is a deep sleeper!
Not really...I just happened to have been a tad squiffy, having raided the good single-barrel bourbon that night. It was just picking up at midnight when I went to bed and was pretty much over when I woke up at 4.
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cajungal
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Swimdude wrote:BigO wrote:I honestly don't know what Cindy's winds were...I slept through it.
Hahaha wow, THIS, my friends, is a deep sleeper!
Well, my dad slept through Andrew right next to a huge window in our living room (boarded of course) And the winds were gusting to over 100 mph here. He was snoring and everything.
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cajungal
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At least our meterologists and the NHC are very skilled and good at what they do. We now have TV, radio, radar, etc... to warn us. Imagine if this was 1900, like in Galveston, when those poor souls did not have a clue what was coming there way? And the poor souls lost in Audrey.
Last edited by cajungal on Sat Jul 09, 2005 11:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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tdess02 wrote:The local mets in New Orleans, except WWL-TV, are a joke. Especially Bob Breck and FOX-8. They did not even tell people to pick up things around the house. My neigbors all put the garbage out on the street the night of Cindy approaching. Fox-8 downpalyed Cindy and said we would probably not see much effects at all in New Orleans. They said we would get less than .5 of rain
and winds of maybe 25-30 mph. When Cindy was done, we had over 6 inches of rain and winds over 70 mph. There are still some homes witout power down here. This kind of bad reporting happens every year and I have learned to only follow the NHC for official information on Hurricanes and Tropical Storms.
Same happened in Atlanta for Ivan.
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I was hanging out with a friend of mine with conference call credentials tonight. We were laughing that if for some (whatever 10-15% chance we have) remote reason New Orleans got blasted, it would be a nightmare squared. We basically cast our lots yesterday. Looks like we rolled a 6 or an 8. Had the storm veered westward, the city would be beyond unprepared.
Steve
Steve
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