Emily a potential Texas Threat?

[KatDaddy]

Corpus Christi AFD:

THIS IS A MAJOR PATTERN
SHIFT INDICATED BY THE MODELS AND IT SHOULD LEAD TO MORE TYPICAL
SUMMER TIME DIURNAL CONVECTION INTO NEXT WEEK (ESPECIALLY WHEN WEAK
WAVES BRING POOLS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE). THAT BEING SAID...RIDGING
ACROSS THE SE US AND WRN US WITH A WEAKNESS ACROSS TEXAS WILL ALSO
LEAVE US OPEN TO TROPICAL SYSTEMS IN THE GULF. THEREFORE WILL HAVE
TO WATCH EMILY'S PROGRESS CLOSELY AS IT MAY TARGET AREAS FURTHER
WEST THAN PREVIOUS SYSTEMS HAVE BUT IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO SAY AND
THIS IS ONLY SPECULATION AT THIS POINT.


Brownsville AFD:

NHC MOVES T.S. EMILY TO NEAR THE
EASTERN TIP OF CUBA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HPC EXTRAPOLATION OF THIS
FEATURE POSITIONS IT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ON 12Z NEXT
TUESDAY. INTERESTS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE WILL NEED TO PAY
ATTENTION TO THE PROGRESS OF THIS FEATURE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK.


Lake Charles AFD:

TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL PLAY A PIVOTAL ROLE IN
THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF EMILY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ASSUMING SHE SURVIVES HER
JOURNEY THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN UNSCATHED.

[Weatherboy1]

This morning, it's looking slightly better for us here in FL ... but slightly worse for you W Gulf-ers, at least to me. While it's too far out to say exactly what will happen, unless Emily starts heading more WNW or the models start shifting more N by tomorrow midday, I'm going to hang my hat on a path south of the islands and into the Gulf rather than through the straits or over FL. And looking at the strength of the ridge that's forecasted to stretch from one end of the Atlantic, over FL and into the Gulf, it's entirely possible this thing will chug W or WNW all the way toward landfall somewhere W of the LA/MS line.

-Mike

[Roxy]

I heard the same thing this am.

Let's wait and see what happens.

Any pro mets know if this ridge could move?

[StormWarning1]

Bastardi is thinking western Gulf also, per his morning video. He also pointed out a track like Iris several years ago, into the yucatan and then southwestard into the pacific

[JenBayles]

Hey, wait a minute! I thought storms don't come to Texas any more!

[GalvestonDuck]

Bastardi is thinking western Gulf also, per his morning video. He also pointed out a track like Iris several years ago, into the yucatan and then southwestard into the pacific

That's what I'm hoping for -- something that will keep him so far south that he'll make it to the YP, dissipate quite a bit (and hopefully not cause damage), and then keep moving westward into the EPAC.

It's possible, right -- If the ridge is strong enough it will keep him moving westward? Wasn't that the case with Dennis -- if the ridge had been stronger, it would have steered Dennis more in the direction of TX/LA, but it was weak so he just scooted on up and around the ridge and into FL.

[gboudx]

DFW NWS is talking about a potentially strong cold front mid-next week. Any thoughts on how that might affect things if it verifies?

GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A POSSIBLE COOL DOWN AROUND MID WEEK NEXT WEEK...WITH A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. IF THIS SOLUTION VERIFIES IT SHOULD ALSO BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED PRECIPITATION TO NORTH TEXAS. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SYSTEM IN THE COMING DAYS.

[Cape Verde]

Emily is 3200 miles away from Texas, so I don't have to worry about that possibility until the weekend, at the earliest. Even then, she would be a few days away.<P>Wouldn't mind being grazed by it, though.

[Portastorm]

Emily has TEXAS written all over her. Might as well paste a Lone Star flag on the ol' girl and watch her roll into the western Gulf (said Michael, using reverse psychology).

[Horatio 'Cane]

Or is this a replay of the Ivan/ Dennis senario? Rember, the trend is your friend (or enemy, in the case of the Florida Panhandle).

[Horatio 'Cane]

BTW, CSI's got nothing on SVU. My Benson and Stabler can take your Caine and Duquesne any day.

Not a chance. Horatio is totally Mr Slick, forever and ever. Duquesne is Madamme cool/ gorgeous. CSI Miami rules!!

[GalvestonDuck]

That's weird...I hit the wrong button on my post.

Anyway, it looks to me like Emily's heading pretty far west. Dang it!

SVU rules!

[logybogy]

The water is much warmer off of Texas than where Dennis hit. Even warmer than south of Cuba.

http://fermi.jhuapl.edu/avhrr/gm/averag ... 4_mult.png

[Meso]

Looks similiar to dennis now, but without the northerly turn , will be interesting..

[Praxus]

Latest track looks bad for west gulf...especially with no weakening over
caribbean landmasses. Cat 3 or cat 4 for texas or louisiana wouldn't surprise me.
People in new orleans should be watching this I'd think.

[karenfromheaven]

The European model takes the storm into the Yucatan in its 168hr plot.

[HouTXmetro]

The European model takes the storm into the Yucatan in its 168hr plot.

I expect the models to trend that way. I have a hunch this may be a Mexico/South Texas storm. Hopefully it will send some much needed rain to ther upper TX coast.

[dwg71]

I'm beginning to wonder if it even makes it to the gulf, if it stays south it could be a central america storm.