scoreboard: 2005 vs 1933...update

[HurricaneJoe22]

From the Fort Lauderdale, FL, Sun-Sentinel newspaper:

This could be worst hurricane season since the 21 storms of 1933

By Ken Kaye
Staff Writer
Posted July 26 2005

With seven named storms emerging in less than eight weeks, the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season is flirting with becoming the most active ever.

At this pace, 22 systems would form by Nov. 30, which would surpass the record of 21 set in 1933.

It's a pace that would exhaust all the storm names on the National Hurricane Center's list.

That's because the list only goes up to W -- Wilma, this year -- and doesn't include names that begin with Q, U, X, Y or Z.

"Some of the letters are very difficult to use because of the scarcity of names that begin with those letters," said research meteorologist Colin McAdie, of the hurricane center in Miami-Dade County.

If 22 or more storms do form this year, the center would name systems under the Greek alphabet, such as Tropical Storm Alpha or Hurricane Beta, McAdie said.

That has never happened.

Still, the fact forecasters have discussed the possibility is an indication of how chaotic this season already has been, and four months remain, including the meanest stretch from mid-August through September, when the most powerful storms spawn.

On Monday, three more tropical waves were rolling off the coast of Africa, and "they look quite vigorous," said hurricane specialist Richard Pasch.

"There's always another system," he said. "We could have a lull, but I wouldn't want to bet against seeing another storm pretty soon."

The latest named system was a short-lived Tropical Storm Gert, which deflated after wobbling into northeast Mexico on Sunday. Tropical Storm Franklin was fading Monday as it aimed into the north-central Atlantic.

A primary reason this year has been so active: A natural cycle of warm water shifting to the tropical region where hurricanes grow.

If even 15 storms form this year, as they did last season, it still would be a rare event. In the past 75 years, only seven seasons have seen 15 or more significant tropical systems -- 1933, 1936, 1969, 1995, 2000, 2003 and 2004.

This season has seen the most named storms in July. It is also the earliest that the fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh systems have formed, according to hurricane records dating back to 1851.

In addition, hurricanes Dennis and Emily exhibited unprecedented intensity for so early in the season. The only other year in which two intense hurricanes formed in July was 1916.

Forecasters say a high number of storms doesn't necessarily mean a season will be intense. Overall intensity is calculated on the total number of storms, how long each lasts and how strong each gets.

In those terms, this season's intensity is projected to be 120 percent to 190 percent of normal. A normal season has 10 tropical storms, including six hurricanes, two intense.

The most intense year ever: 1950, which was 278 percent of normal. It saw 11 hurricanes, 8 of them major, with two of those slamming South Florida, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

One caveat: If 22 or more storms emerge this year, it might not be a record -- because it's possible many seasons prior to 1965 were even busier.

That was the year when satellites first monitored the entire Earth, and all prior records are somewhat suspect, said Chris Landsea, a research meteorologist with NOAA's hurricane research division.

For instance, this year's Tropical Storm Bret, which existed for one day in late June in the southwest Gulf of Mexico, likely would have been missed more than 40 years ago, he said.

"We've only got 40 years of accurate data," he said. "Before the satellite era, you may have had storms that were short-lived that didn't impact land and didn't get into the database."

Ken Kaye can be reached at kkaye@sun-sentinel.com or 954-385-7911.

[Hurricaneman]

We may have at least 1 more July named storm

[Astro_man92]

A graph showing how the 2005 hurricane season compares to the 2004 hurricane season and the average:
http://www.weatherstreet.com/hurricane/ ... c-2005.htm

2005 Hurricane season to date:
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at2005.asp

1933 hurricane season:
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at1933.asp