Where is the center of 92L?

#81 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 8:39 am

That "center" is just a guess as where to initialize the models. Earlier, the NHC was putting it sown at 10N when the energy was clearly welll north of that near 15N. The pressure is a little lower south of the DR/PR, but satellite indicates most of the wave's energy is north of the Caribbean. One thing looks clear, this is nowhere near a TD today, and it probably won't be anything but a wave for a few days.

Derecho · #82 Postby **Derecho** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 8:44 am

Actually there's somewhat of a lopsided surface circ on visible satellite at the location of the 12Z NHC model init for 92L, Southeast of the Dominican Republic.

#83 Postby **deltadog03** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 8:45 am

good point derecho...i just looked at the radar...it does look like there is something small there developing near the intialized point...

rockyman · #84 Postby **rockyman** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 8:57 am

Convection blossoming near the "center" of 92L...What's the tail blowing up to the SW? Is this an outflow boundary...or something else...I noticed a similar feature yesterday with this same system:

#85 Postby **skysummit** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:00 am

What is that rotation just to the north of P.R. in between P.R. and The Dominican Rep.?

#86 Postby **deltadog03** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:18 am

If** a center forms, which is looking possible, i think it will be near 17.2N and 69.5W...estimate....looks like that cluster is looking better..and there appears to be some rotation in there...we will see...what if this goes below the islands...any better chances for development there???

#87 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:30 am

steve lyons said the center was just south of hispanola near that cluster of thunderstorms, he said nothing much will happen till it gets ast the islands but should start after and go in the gulf

#88 Postby **deltadog03** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:36 am

i agree..I think recon should fly into that today, IF** is continues to get better situated...i could** see a TD out of that if it persists....I think the wave split. I would give the southern part the better chance to develop...anyone have a current shear map?? i would appreciate it...

Thunder44 · #89 Postby **Thunder44** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:41 am

It still doesn't look much organized to me. I think the flight has been cancelled for today. It was supposed leave at 8:45am EDT this morning but I don't see any obs yet.

#90 Postby **micktooth** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:44 am

I agree, looks like it might have split. There appears to be some rotation south of DR and some north of PR. We'll have to wait and see.

Website · #91 Postby **Brent** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:59 am

rockyman wrote:The 12z tropicals are finally in...they initiate the "center" just south of the eastern tip of Hispaniola:

Death track. Hispanola and Cuba... Bye-Bye.

#92 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 10:01 am

Brent wrote:
rockyman wrote:The 12z tropicals are finally in...they initiate the "center" just south of the eastern tip of Hispaniola:

Death track. Hispanola and Cuba... Bye-Bye.

it cant hurt it if its still an open wave, when it gets past the islands is when people expect it to develop

#93 Postby **Frank P** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 10:05 am

looks to me 92 L also has another rotation trying to develop north of PR at 19.2 and 66.9 in addition to the one south of the DR ... more of a mid level feature I would guess... convection on the rise slightly this am, both features moving off to the wnw

#94 Postby **micktooth** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 10:09 am

If you look at the wv loop. The "northern" part is being effected by and ULL and the "southern" part is trying to develop in an extremely "dry" environment. Good luck, it ain't going to happen. However, 93L is looking a little healthier today as talked about on another post.

clfenwi · #95 Postby **clfenwi** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 11:13 am

Brent wrote:
rockyman wrote:The 12z tropicals are finally in...they initiate the "center" just south of the eastern tip of Hispaniola:

Death track. Hispanola and Cuba... Bye-Bye.

The thing with those models is that they have had a right bias with this system the whole way through.

For example, as recently as the 00Z run (1), they were putting the latitude of the system at 12Z today between 18.2 and 18.7 North (with longitudes ranging from 67.8 to 68.5 West). For when the system crossed 68.8 West, the latitude range was even further north.

As mentioned earlier, the initialized position for the 12Z run was 17.7 North 68.8 West... so the best performers were about 40 nm to the right (too far north, not far enough west). If that kind of performance is reported with this run (i.e. the 'center' runs 40 nm to the left of the leftmost model) , then it won't be on a death-track (as far as land goes).

#96 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 12:02 pm

clfenwi wrote:
Brent wrote:
rockyman wrote:The 12z tropicals are finally in...they initiate the "center" just south of the eastern tip of Hispaniola:

Death track. Hispanola and Cuba... Bye-Bye.

The thing with those models is that they have had a right bias with this system the whole way through.

For example, as recently as the 00Z run (1), they were putting the latitude of the system at 12Z today between 18.2 and 18.7 North (with longitudes ranging from 67.8 to 68.5 West). For when the system crossed 68.8 West, the latitude range was even further north.

As mentioned earlier, the initialized position for the 12Z run was 17.7 North 68.8 West... so the best performers were about 40 nm to the right (too far north, not far enough west). If that kind of performance is reported with this run (i.e. the 'center' runs 40 nm to the left of the leftmost model) , then it won't be on a death-track (as far as land goes).

that is true and i noticed that as well. as long as it stays very weak it will take the more southern track.

<RICKY>

Hurricaneman · #97 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 12:37 pm

This one is dead, but you never know what will happen when it gets in the gulf

Sanibel · #98 Postby **Sanibel** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 4:36 pm

Surprising resiliency considering the speeding easterlies and land interaction...

Where is the center of 92L?

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