What's up in the GOM, if anything?

[Stormcenter]

Hmmmmmm.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=6

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The best curving is on the coastline. Other wise its really nothing.

[Opal storm]

Our local mets have not even mentioned it and Steve Lyons said it's just going to bring cloudy skies and thunderstorms to the northern Gulf coast,said nothing about development.

[Nimbus]

Looks like kind of a weak circulation near where recon was flying around but the surface pressures are not yoyoing much yet.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42040

[Rainband]

there is a 1015 mb low according to the satellite.

[Nimbus]

Its close enough to home that its worth monitoring.
93L is not much of a threat to anyone for a couple days after it gets through the islands.
Harvey or Irene which is more appropriate name for a home grown storm?

[vacanechaser]

this is the tail end of the stalled cold front and trough that moved through my area in Virginia on Wednesday.. The trough is going to "split" and lift out and this would be an area to watch should some of the energy get left behind. This is what JB was talking about earlier this week.. I didn't know if there was even a possibility, but looking at some of the storm activity, if it persists, it could be interesting to see if some happens.. A few of the models hint at a low developing and hugging the coast.

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Rainband]

which models?? Links please.

[Normandy]

Not again....that thing south ofo AL/FL wont amount to anything....if you wanna look at something interesting in the Gulf look just south of LA (weak weak weak surface circ).

[HouTXmetro]

[quote="Normandy"]Not again....that thing south ofo AL/FL wont amount to anything....if you wanna look at something interesting in the Gulf look just south of LA (weak weak weak surface circ).[/quote

I just noticed that there is another circulation south of Morgan , LA. Too close to land to develop. I still think the L south of MS/AL has a better chance since it has convection at the least.

[Normandy]

Not again....that thing south ofo AL/FL wont amount to anything....if you wanna look at something interesting in the Gulf look just south of LA (weak weak weak surface circ).[/quote

I just noticed that there is another circulation south of Morgan , LA. Too close to land to develop. I still think the L south of MS/AL has a better chance since it has convection at the least.

They are both about the same distance from land...(using the NWS front or whatever). That being said both wont do anything.

[jasons2k]

I posted yesterday I think it will not be the low off AL/FL, but further SW. Still nothing there; not expecting much until Mon. Old front/convergence zone in GOM needs to be watched.

[deltadog03]

and this near jamaica?? i know its not the gulf but, could this move in there?

CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR
JAMAICA AT 18N76W. A RIDGE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 60W
FROM NE VENEZUELA AT 9N60W TO BEYOND 32N60W. EXPECT THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TO MOVE W TO 65W IN 24 HOURS WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
BENEATH IT.

[Lowpressure]

The way this season started, we need to watch any cloud that sits over warm water a day or two. Stalled fronts that leave energy in the N Gulf can often bring a small TS if storms stay put for a few days. You don't need JB to tell you that.

[tailgater]

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USLoca ... odnav=none
Circulation shows up nicely but very little moisture to work with, but the dry air does seem to be retreating in latest WV loop.

[vbhoutex]

I haven't been watching this real closely, but my guess is that circulation S of Morgan City is what was S of FL/AL line previously. The ridge is retreating E somewhat from our area and this area has been mentioned as a possible rainmaker in a few days as/or if, it settles in over the TX hill country.

[vacanechaser]

which models?? Links please.

I was at a friends house last night and he was using a site to look at the GFS.. I noticed it put a L on the map in the area south of La. in the Gulf and moved it westward towards Texas. One run showed it moving into Texas as a weak low, the second showed it moving into La as a weak low. Sorry I dont have the links to where he was getting this. I have never used that site for the models. I use the NCEP site.. And that does not show any low... So for that I will shut up now!!


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Untercept Research Team

[Derecho]

The interesting thing is that development of tropical systems in the GOM is surprisingly rare, and development in the GOM without the presence of an African Easterly Wave (a la Alicia and Danny) is even rarer.

A lot rarer than people think. Most storms in the GOM come in there having already formed somewhere else.