Amateur Forecast for Irene - 11:00 AM EDT Aug 7

[wxmann_91]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Tropical Storm Irene Advisory 12
8:00 AM PDT Aug 7 2005 (11:00 AM EDT or 15Z Aug 7 2005)

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For official forecasts...please refer to the NHC. This is an independent product.

Please remember...hurricanes can be very unpredictable and can make sudden changes and/or shifts in both track and intensity.
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Delayed due to major computer problems

TD 9 has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Irene based on latest Quikscat data...and in addition...its center is to the north. This changes the entire forecast. Because of its more northerly position...Irene now has more chances to recurve. Thus...the forecast track has shifted a bit northward again. This lessens the danger to the east coast of the United States.

The intensity forecast is problematic. The GFDL has been completely discarded...as it has flipped-flopped between making Irene a hurricane and weakening it. The intensity forecast will remain similar to the previous forecast...making Irene a hurricane by the end of the period.

Irene is now the earliest 9th named storm on record. The old record was August 20.

Forecaster Tang


Hour Position Intensity
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Initial 20.5N 45.5W 35 kt
12 hr 20.7N 47.7W 35 kt
24 hr 21.0N 50.1W 40 kt
36 hr 21.6N 52.5W 40 kt
48 hr 22.4N 54.9W 45 kt
72 hr 23.8N 57.8W 50 kt
96 hr 25.1N 60.5W 60 kt
120 hr 26.8N 63.3W 70 kt

No track today again because of comp probs.

[WindRunner]

Here's a track for you:

[wxmann_91]

Thanks Windrunner for making that track!

[WindRunner]

No problem.