EATS OUT on August 8, 2005

[dhweather]

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Eastern Atlantic Tropical Summary - EATS OUT on August 8, 2005

<img src="http://www.diamondheadweather.com/eats20050808.jpg">

Not to sound like a broken record, but.......

That dry air is killin'
All the waves around
It's killin' all the invests
And taking cyclones to town
I got 'dem dry air blues........

Dry Air continues to be the story for the tropical Atlantic basin.
Combined with Saharan Dust, and you get what we have - very limited
tropical activity.

Brutally dry air and Saharan dust continue to be the feature for the
tropical Atlantic basin. This is a severe inhibitor for any development
of tropical systems, and there is no predictor for when this pattern will
change.

We do have two tropical waves, one emerging off of the coast of Africa,
and another in the central Atlantic. I do not expect either of these
systems to develop into tropical cyclones in the next 48 hours.

I drew Irene being slaughtered by the ULL to its North again, just
because that's about it for tropical activity.

[WeatherEmperor]

Looks like a crap load of dry air.

<RICKY>

[dhweather]

Well, look at it this way, that means that SST's will get warmer in the
far eastern Atlantic. Nothing can develop, but if it does, watch out!

[WeatherEmperor]

Well, look at it this way, that means that SST's will get warmer in the
far eastern Atlantic. Nothing can develop, but if it does, watch out!

How long do you think that will take? I have noticed that the sea surface temperature anomalies are almost near normal where they should be. take a look at this graphic.

<RICKY>

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/atl_anom.gif

[dhweather]

The SST's will probably creep up over the next two-three weeks,
as I GUESS that's how long it will take for our normal Cape Verde
season to come along. That may add another degree or two (Fahrenheit)
to the temps, but it creates depth too, which is important for the big storms.

We can speculate that the season is over - i.e. an early start means a
quiet ending - but I just don't see that being the case. As Luis and
Don Sutherland, and many others have pointed out, we have the MJO
also working against the tropics. That pattern should change in a few
weeks also.

So we could go from dead quiet to insanely busy in a month!

[TS Zack]

LOL people don't realize in this lull in activity we still have gotten two storms out of it.

That dry air is not going to affect that fetch of moisture closer to the lesser antilles. Watch that closely!