When will Jose form?

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When will Jose form?

2 to 3 days
4
5%
4 to 5 days
22
27%
6 to 7 days
20
24%
Over a Week
36
44%
 
Total votes: 82
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beachbum_al
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#21 Postby beachbum_al » Mon Aug 08, 2005 9:04 am

4 to 7 days from now
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#22 Postby mascpa » Mon Aug 08, 2005 9:14 am

Conditions just don't seem conducive right now. I'd say at least 7 - 10 days before we see Jose, maybe longer.
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#23 Postby caribepr » Mon Aug 08, 2005 10:54 am

I'm saying over a week because last time there was a Jose we only had a two day prep time, not long when you are helping people move boats and get shuttered up (and making sure there is plenty of liquid nourishment around!).
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#24 Postby Frank2 » Mon Aug 08, 2005 12:06 pm

Here's a full disk view of the eastern Atantic and Africa:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/FULLDISK/GMIR.JPG

it does not look very active at this time.

Since this coming Saturday is the first anniversary of Hurricane Charley's landfall in Southwest Florida (8/13), I'll guess and say that if the anniversary is passed without a significant system on the map, we may well begin to here some OCM's comment about the season (with the exception of Dennis and Emily) being better than expected - just a guess, but passing anniversary dates are always significant, since they are often compared with the present moment.

Frank
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#25 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Aug 08, 2005 12:12 pm

well if you want to go with passing dates, lets wait for when the "i" storm developed in SEPTEMBER in 2004
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#26 Postby Frank2 » Mon Aug 08, 2005 12:17 pm

Well, if we haven't had another significant system by then, that would be a 2005 season much better than expected!

Frank
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#27 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Mon Aug 08, 2005 1:39 pm

Don't worry folks, this season will still be a crazy one. Don't forget, in a normal season, we may be just getting our 2nd named system at this point in the game. We've already had 9 named systems so far this year!

And last year we had the Florida Triple Treat beginning with Charley in the 2nd week of August (anniversary approaching) and then things really took off.

Enjoy the respite while you can!
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#28 Postby Trader Ron » Mon Aug 08, 2005 2:13 pm

It will have to be a Heck of a 2005 to surpass last year with regards to landfalls. Yes, i know about Dennis and Emily. They did little damage, COMPARED to Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne. :D
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#29 Postby dhweather » Mon Aug 08, 2005 4:29 pm

More than a week - it's too dry!
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#30 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 08, 2005 4:37 pm

In 2 weeks after the 20th Jose will be born.Too dry,unfavorable NAO and MJO now.
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Buck
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#31 Postby Buck » Mon Aug 08, 2005 4:57 pm

6-7 days is what i voted.
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