WATS UP - August 11, 2005

[dhweather]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Western Atlantic Tropical Summary - WATS UP on August 11, 2005

<img src="http://www.diamondheadweather.com/wats20050811.jpg">

Irene regained tropical storm strength overnight, and continues to slowly
get better organized. We are now seeing better outflow on the west
and south quadrants of Irene. The ULL to the west of Irene is slowly
weakening and having less of an influence on Irene, which is why
the outflow is improving.

As for the track and strength of the system, that remains a bit
troublesome. The models agree fairly well for the next day or two, then
vary significantly. The relatively dry environment around Irene will
serve as the largest inhibitor for development in the next couple of
days, as the system moves to the WNW.

Irene may reach category 1 status as she approaches the Carolinas
in a few days. The NHC guidance gets close to the outer banks of
North Carolina in five days, but as we all know, errors are rather large
for a forecast that far out. If you are in the Southeast coast of the US, I'd
keep an eye on Irene for the next few days.

Elsewhere, three tropical waves are moving westward across the
Caribbean and the Western Atlantic, and I do not expect tropical cyclone
development from any of these waves in the next 48-72 hours.
The dry air over the Caribbean and western Atlantic are limiting
development.