Irene Forecast #7: A double US landfall

[Josephine96]

DISCLAIMER:
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

EXPERIMENTAL HURRICANE FORECAST
TROPICAL STORM IRENE
NJN WEATHER CENTER
850 PM THURS AUG 11TH 2005

Tropical Storm Irene continues to come out of her shell tonight and slowly grow as she continues moving in the Atlantic at a W or WNW course. After forecasting a single landfall last night in SC. My landfall predicitions have changed.

Irene is in an area of warm Atlantic water. This may cause her to strengthen quickly, perhaps bringing her to hurricane status. Something I will admit I'd never thought she'd become.

The NHC forecast has Irene moving WNW and then moving to the NW when she is well to the East of Florida. Then possibly coming close to the Carolina's if not making a landfall before shooting north at the influence of an approaching trough.

My forecast is a slight bit different. I will forecast Irene to continue moving WNW and then eventually NW. She will then make a 1st landfall somewhere around the Outer Banks. After this.. she will then be shot north. This, as a result of the approaching front.

The shot to the north should allow her to spend a brief time back in the Atlantic, before making her 2nd landfall somewhere on the northern edge of the DelMarva peninsula. Preferably somewhere north of DC. Along the coast of Deleware.

She then should shoot through the Northeast with winds and rain before dying out.

All that however is way too early to say and this forecast and analysis may and very well probably will change.

Here's my current experimental forecast on Irene:
Tonight: Well to the South of Bermuda. Organizing. Max Winds: 55 mph
Friday: Moving WNW, between 65-70 W. Strengthening. Max Winds: 70 mph
Saturday: Closest approach to Florida. Well East of the state. Becoming a hurricane Max Winds: 80 mph
Sunday: Feeling the Gulf Stream as it excels NW ward. Strengthening. Watches for the Mid Atlantic. Max Winds: 90 mph
Monday: Closing in on 1st landfall. Be weary Carolina's. Max Winds: 100 mph

Track and intensity forecasts are subject to errors, some by as many as 100's of miles.

[WindRunner]

It's always interesting to see the people calling 55mph. You'll never see that from the NHC because of the rounding from the conversion from knots. 45kt->50 and 50kt->60mph. Other than that, that's how I've seen it for a while and agree with you totally. Great forecast.

[george_r_1961]

Good forecast John. Although it does not quite jibe with mine it does make sense.

[Anonymous]

It's always interesting to see the people calling 55mph. You'll never see that from the NHC because of the rounding from the conversion from knots. 45kt->50 and 50kt->60mph. Other than that, that's how I've seen it for a while and agree with you totally. Great forecast.

Right...same goes to 95 mph. You may see them on intermediate advisories.

[Josephine96]

LOL.. Well I don't like rounding to the next 10th lol