TWO besides Irene and TD#10

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 120238
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT THU AUG 11 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM IRENE...LOCATED ABOUT 410 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 875
MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

FORECASTER PASCH

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Interesting. Come one Jose keep this year in the lead!!!

[Ivanhater]

i just heard on nhcradio!!!!! can you post this in my central atlantic wave thread

[Hyperstorm]

I haven't paid much attention to this system until this evening when it appeared to be slowly getting better organized.

Here's a very simple image depicting that the system is slowly consolidating near 11N, 40W:



There appears to be a MLC developing where I circled and convection slowly developing, but no signs of low-level features.

This could develop down the road once it mixes the dry air to its north, which has kept it from developing intense convection all along...

[HURAKAN]

Jose is on the way!

[wxmann_91]

I think you guys are getting too excited IMHO. We might have 5 pages before this thing even gets named, if it does at all.

[Thunder44]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 120920
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM IRENE...LOCATED ABOUT 325 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 795
MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION DURING THE NIGHT...BUT HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

FORECASTER BEVEN

$$

[drezee]

even over Africa!!! That is "perdy".....

[WindRunner]

But don't they always look like that at that point?

[Hurricanehink]

Hmm, something interesting is that Harvey is still on NRL. It has been for a while, and it is actually updating the sat. positions. It is just a naked swirl, but are they expecting anything to happen?

[beachbum_al]

I was wondering when the NHC would mention it. I saw it on the map yesterday and was wondering.

[gatorcane]

Jose ?

[Patrick99]

I bet it doesn't start to make any noise until it reaches the islands. I think this may be a recurring pattern this year.....I don't know if we'll see any Donna or Georges type storms that develop quickly and churn for days out there.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM IRENE... LOCATED ABOUT 285 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA
AND ABOUT 445 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA...
AND ALSO ON NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN...LOCATED ABOUT
1100 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND ADJACENT
LAND AREAS. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT35 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5. FORECAST/ADVISORIES
ON THE DEPRESSION ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT25 AND UNDER
AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT5.

5:30 PM TWO. It mentions Caribbean Area.

[WindRunner]

Now that is interesting.

[hicksta]

Joe b also mentioned for the gulf to watch out for something???

[johngaltfla]

Joe b also mentioned for the gulf to watch out for something???

He did??????



Maybe I'm missing something unless there's some potential at the end of the 48-72 hour forecast period that I'm missing...

[Derecho]

Joe b also mentioned for the gulf to watch out for something???

Any given week during at least one discussion that week he'll mention the GOM will need to be watched for development the next week; this will occur every week from June through September.

And I'm not exaggerating; he did so last year...and from what I gather he hasn't changed his stripes this year, though of course I'm not subscribing.

[deltadog03]

i mean...can we stop the bashing...dang folks...if you don't like him...don't read it or look...he is not that bad as people are saying...

[caribepr]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM IRENE... LOCATED ABOUT 285 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA
AND ABOUT 445 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA...
AND ALSO ON NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN...LOCATED ABOUT
1100 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND ADJACENT
LAND AREAS. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT35 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5. FORECAST/ADVISORIES
ON THE DEPRESSION ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT25 AND UNDER
AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT5.

5:30 PM TWO. It mentions Caribbean Area.

For those of you, who I think are younger and very adept at the computer as well as quite bright mentally...we see these every year, and yes, they are VERY worth paying attention to, but while they make their way toward what we would consider dangerously close areas to land (be it islands or continents) - your time might be better spent, if you can't tear yourselves from your computers, looking at the whole of what this board, and many other sites offer in terms of history and current thinking on storms. I've seen a number of posts saying, hey, I'm away for a bit, catch me up please? Nothing wrong with that except that this site itself is full of exactly what has been going on (without going through dozens, hundreds of pages - example, the pro met area of analysis with anyone welcome to join in). That is a way to really learn on the curve of what is actually going on now, backed by sound understanding of what has happened before. What it will do for you is give you an understanding of why you don't have to go haywire every time there is a slight change in the direction of a storm that you have seen on some satellite or model - which can be really confusing if you don't look at the long term.
I think it's really fantastic that younger people are so intrigued by weather systems...but like ALL deep interests, understanding takes time, more time than a DSL connection will give in a second. While you wait, go back and learn more, which you can then bring to all of us when you state a possible forecast or interpretation of data.

Blah blah, the teacher is going to play on Saturday night.