#102 Postby MiamiensisWx » Fri May 30, 2008 3:43 pm
I must sound akin to a broken record, but I still do not see any "conclusive" evidence over the broader spectrum of samples that supports the theory. Frankly, we don't even have accurate data for the global pattern present during two of the big years, which are 1935 and 1965. What was the ENSO, QBO, IOD, tropical Atlantic pattern at H5 and the low levels, CONUS pattern, et al features? Could some of the dry Mays with FL strikes been "artificial" coincidences? For example, the 1935 TC formed relatively close to the coast like Katrina in 2005. That could have been a more significant deciding factor (instead of the steering) between a strike than a miss. The only way to really test the theory (which involves transevaporation and the correlation with the upper air pattern) is to examine long tracked Cape Verde systems, which tend to naturally recurve earlier. The dry May theory largely relies on the "drought begets drought" idea of transevaporation in which drier soils tend to support the establishment of an upper ridge. Transevaporation has been proven in some situations across the country, but the dry May theory is much more doubtful. Florida is a relatively smaller land mass in aereal coverage than the rest of the Southeast, so it may not induce a significant effect (if the dry May theory even has any validity). I'm not attempting to dissuade discussion, but my earlier points still stand.
The theory will remain an enigma until we gain a much broader database, if that even occurs in the end.
0 likes
