Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development

[x-y-no]

And this only the beginning of what will be many many threads like this is 2008.

Obviously, we all enjoy them or we wouldn't be posting ...

[Ed Mahmoud]

What ever happened to that guy Berwick Bay from last season, he would predict the latitude and longitude of a future storm and stick with it no matter what.

I think he felt insulted when he wasn't allowed to refer to his system as 'The Berwick Model'.


If he was from the Berwick that is across the river from Morgan City, I've caught a real small crew boat out of there that chugged down the Intracoastal in a manner reminiscent of 'Apocalypse Now', out to small drilling barge, the Mallard Bay #54, near Marsh Island.

[gatorcane]

Latest GFS run seems to stall a low off of the SW Coast of Florida. Here is the run at 360 hours out which of course has very low accuracy. If this low can pan out, it would bring much, much need rains to Southern Florida as some have pointed out in this thread. Florida would be on the wet side of this low (the east side).

[KWT]

If that system is tropical it doesn't xactly look that strong, down to 1004mbs I'd guess would be a moderate tropical storm, though to be fair Florida does need some rainfall right now and just such a system would be a big help.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS Loop



I haved been following only the 12z runs of GFS for the past few days to see if it continues to show a Western Caribbean system,and todays run shows it once again,this time starting on day 9.However,it appears to not be as very strong as in the past few 12z runs that had the lowest pressure down to 1002 mbs.

To the poster above gatorcane,that is not the latest GFS run as it was the 00z one.I am quoating myself to post again the 12z run,that has this moving quickly thru Florida and not slowly.

[KWT]

Yeah the 12z run also didnt make much of the system it creates either for that matter.

[Ivanhater]

Yeah the 12z run also didnt make much of the system it creates either for that matter.

True, however the resolution is very poor that far out and the GFS does not really show the true strength accuratley of a tropical system as noted with dean and felix of last year. Anyway I would suspect any system in the Gulf to be sheared anyway this early in the season.

[Ivanhater]

18z still got it...at this point im fairly certain something will try to develop but I think it will be rather sheared...



BTW...according to the GFS it will start to develop about a week from today...

[george_r_1961]

Im guessing cold core. Chance of a noreaster for part of the southeast coast but if I were to have to guess now whatever it is should move NE away from the CONUS hopefully after bringing some rain to Florida

[jimvb]

The 18Z run introduces a new development. It backs up the storm to about 324 hours. It no longer is always predicting a storm the day after 14*[the day after] tomorrow. It says the storm will strike on or about June 2, but the last few runs have it going out to sea for the most part. The 12Z was the most interesting, taking it into peninsular Florida and splitting in half.

[LaPlaceFF]

woo hoo model watching!

Keep me posted.

The only model I wanna watch is Tyra Banks!!!

[sponger]

Dean, linked from the surf station weighing in

Extended Forecast:
Continuing offshore flow with no Atlantic lows through most of the work week = very small to flat surf into Thursday. Recent model data suggests a backdoor front will produce a NE/E wind swell by next weekend. Also, the GFS (notoriously prone to convective feedback and developing low pressure areas along old frontal boundaries) is hinting that cyclogenisis may occur late Sunday to our east in the Atlantic N/NE of the northern Bahamas along the decaying back door frontal boundary SST's are warm enough to support an extra-tropical low or early season tropical system - stay tuned.


And Deans 2 cents on the 08 as a whole

Looking way ahead to the '08 hurricane season, the start of a moderate La Nina in the Pacific suggests that tropical activity should pick up for next year's season, but given this year's busted forecast, I'll go with me long range gut feeling of another below normal season. That does not mean that we'll breeze through without a hit- all it takes is a direct hit by a cat 4 or 5 in a sub-par season (such as Andrew, August '92) to make it a bad year. With the start of hurricane season only a few weeks away, I will start to focus on the tropics as the potential for an early season system increases

[Meso]

The 00z moves the low over the Yucatan and towards Mexico now..Still has a low developing at around 200 hours

[KWT]

The 06z still has that system developing in the Sw Caribbean forming around 240hrs. On this run it heads slowly northwards then towards the ENE and weakening towards Florida, though to be fair it never gets that strong on this run in the 1st place.

[cycloneye]

5/20/08,12z GFS Loop



Todays 12z GFS still shows a Western Caribbean System,but looses it and its very weak.

Next.

[KWT]

Yep the 12z does still develop it but it never gets below 1008mbs. Still the GFS has constantly tried to form some sort of low in that region for quite a few runs now in a row.

[Ivanhater]

Ok interesting Scenario..this is the 18z..new one should come in , in a couple hours..

starts to form in about a week..240 hours out hanging around in the NW Caribbean..


hangs around for a few days then eventually starts to head to the central gulf..

[Category 5]

Looks like an exact clone of Arlene, but a one week GFS run is about the same as asking a Psychic.

[Ivanhater]

Looks like an exact clone of Arlene, but a one week GFS run is about the same as asking a Psychic.

True..but given this system has shown up on about every run for the past few days lends more credit.

[Category 5]

Looks like an exact clone of Arlene, but a one week GFS run is about the same as asking a Psychic.

True..but given this system has shown up on about every run for the past few days lends more credit.

Once we get down to 3-5 days out, and other models (The CMC doesn't count) start hinting it as well, thats when we have something to really keep a close eye on. Early June GOM storms like the one it's hinting are becoming common the last few years (Three years in a row in fact), once we get into the GFS's "Range" (As I mentioned 3-5 days) then things get interesting. However past 5 days the GFS isn't very good, and beyond 10 it's 1 in 1,000,000.