Long Range Models

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Frank2
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Re: Long Range Models

#101 Postby Frank2 » Tue Jun 24, 2008 9:09 am

Thanks - though my idea came from a sign seen during Monday Night Football (won't be long now)...

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LOL

P.S. My brother worked for ABC about a million years ago, so, I'm partial to them...
Last edited by Frank2 on Tue Jun 24, 2008 10:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
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boca
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Re: Long Range Models

#102 Postby boca » Tue Jun 24, 2008 9:14 am

Frank2 wrote:That's true and I'm happy for it, for sure - though I think my idea came from a sign seen during Monday Night Football (won't be long now)...

Always (the)
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Commentators

LOL

P.S. My brother worked for ABC about a million years ago, so, I'm partial to them...


I think it was Don Meredith that said "Turn out the lights the party's over",when a team got their butts whipped.
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Re: Long Range Models

#103 Postby canegrl04 » Tue Jun 24, 2008 9:58 am

boca wrote:
Frank2 wrote:That's true and I'm happy for it, for sure - though I think my idea came from a sign seen during Monday Night Football (won't be long now)...

Always (the)
Best
Commentators

LOL

P.S. My brother worked for ABC about a million years ago, so, I'm partial to them...


I think it was Don Meredith that said "Turn out the lights the party's over",when a team got their butts whipped.


Don Meridith was a one of a kind football player. Last season on a local Dallas station they had a special about past Cowboy QBs. They all related their storiesw.Don was funny talking about how he was glad when the shotgun formation came along.He was tired of "putting my hands on other guys' butts"
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#104 Postby Frank2 » Tue Jun 24, 2008 10:08 am

Anyway, the shear sure is strong at this time...

In keeping with the NFL theme, "Go shear go!"
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#105 Postby Meso » Tue Jun 24, 2008 11:34 am

Image

Strong wave only like a week out moving off Africa


Image

312 hours
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#106 Postby Meso » Tue Jun 24, 2008 2:21 pm

The EURO has jumped on board with the train of E.PAC storms.. And latest run has a very large (size at least) storm as well as another storm and another low

Image
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#107 Postby Meso » Tue Jun 24, 2008 5:18 pm

GFS also now has a wave with a closed low moving off Africa in around 4-5 days..Probably won't materialize or not be as strong,but hey..

GFs 120 Hour
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#108 Postby jrod » Tue Jun 24, 2008 5:24 pm

The only thing I will take from long range models is how they set up the steering currents in their forecast. My guess is the east coast of Florida is back in the crosshairs this season.
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Re: Long Range Models

#109 Postby stormhunter7 » Wed Jun 25, 2008 12:26 am

wow, don't know if you seen the 00Z GFS tonight... looks like someone is about to flip the switch in the atlantic... i notice the azore high looks like it might get pushed around a bit in the coming weeks.. opening up the southern atlantic and the carb. and gom.... long range is going crazy with the wave train... lets see how long the GFS keeps it in its runs...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
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#110 Postby Meso » Wed Jun 25, 2008 12:39 am

wow 3 C.V storms by the end of the forecast for the 00z run.2 are still far out while the one develops just 138 hours away and intensifies quickly off Africa and then weakens as it moves West.


the CMC shows a similar feature,a strong low moving off Africa then
CMC image
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#111 Postby Meso » Wed Jun 25, 2008 5:28 am

Latest GFS 150 Hours.. Still showing a beast of a wave developing off Africa
Image

Deepens it to 1008mb at 162 hours
Just over 200 hours
The model has moved the system to the north and weakened it,whether this be cause of the shear or the cooler SSTs in that area.But another thing I've noticed over the years is that usually when a model shows a strong storm just off the coast of Africa it moves it further north than it should since it usually creates a stronger storm than what happens in reality.And in most cases what it shows now ends up being a strong wave that stays further south and gradually becomes a depression.(Not raising any alarms,this is still pretty far out)
336 Hours : weak and out to sea
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#112 Postby KWT » Wed Jun 25, 2008 6:08 am

Very interesting to see its still picking out a Cape Verde season, still maybe a little early but we do need to start to watch this region more and the fact the GFS has been bringing out a strong wave is something of interest. Mind you I don't think its going to jump NW between 150-200hrs like the GFS 06z shows!
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#113 Postby Meso » Wed Jun 25, 2008 11:25 am

Image

12z.. being consistent
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#114 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Wed Jun 25, 2008 12:54 pm

The last few runs of the GFS have been pretty consistent with that strong wave coming off of Africa in about 6-7 days. It will definitely be something worth watching for potential early CV development..
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#115 Postby Squarethecircle » Wed Jun 25, 2008 12:56 pm

Could turn out to be interesting, but I'll be wanting to see it still there in a few days. You know how these long-term models can be.
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Re: Long Range Models(Feature off Africa @ hour 150 [per GFS])

#116 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Wed Jun 25, 2008 1:06 pm

The closer they develop to Africa, the more time they have to be recurved and become a fish storm.


Early July, as seen from 1996 and Bertha, isn't impossible for a CV storm. And, that one did make it all the way across...
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#117 Postby Meso » Wed Jun 25, 2008 1:30 pm

Image

CMC : Not showing much yet,just an area of lower pressure on the African coast

Image

A low per EURO
Last edited by Meso on Wed Jun 25, 2008 2:28 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Long Range Models(Feature off Africa @ hour 150 [per GFS])

#118 Postby Frank2 » Wed Jun 25, 2008 2:15 pm

I see nothing...
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#119 Postby dwg71 » Wed Jun 25, 2008 2:30 pm

I got nothing, let shear reign all summer. Give me 1997 all over again.
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#120 Postby KWT » Wed Jun 25, 2008 4:46 pm

Its a closed off circulation Frank, not a TD thats for sure based on the ECM but then again at this time of year I wouldn't expect to see that to be honest!

dwg71, 1997 would be boring as heck, no give me an active season with lots of recurving majors that would do me.
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