Huge African Wave To Enter Atlantic on July 1-2

[cycloneye]

This is the 00:00UTC photo of Africa.

[Derek Ortt]

the wave/low made the nwhhc atlantic ocean tropical outlook this evening

[boca]

It asks for a password to see sat pic.

[Derek Ortt]

I'm not registered, Luis,

your image keeps promting me for a password. Can you upload a diffrent image?

[Fego]

The entrance began...

[cycloneye]

Oh boy,I forgot about that.Here is the link to get the images via a password.

http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/registerql.html

[MiamiensisWx]

By the way, the wave axis in question (as previously mentioned) is still inland near Nigeria. The "entrance" has not commenced.

On the surface, most of the audience appears to have been taught to immediately reject all contrary evidence from those who do not expect cyclogenesis. Unfortunately, this attitude has been unintentionally encouraged, and hostility toward posters who denounce development in certain cases is increasing. If this attitude continues, I will stop providing my objective analyses to this site. The "head powers" have done a nice job with the management of the site, but I feel my presence is unwarranted. Anyone who is familiar with me knows that I do not debunk or deny all probabilities for cyclogenesis. In fact, I was (initially) consistently calling for the plausible development of Arthur in the southern Caribbean Sea in late May; though the timing was incorrect and I eventually changed my views, we still witnessed it, despite doubts from others. I will undoubtedly lurk, but further posts will not occur. You will immediately realize the invaluable necessities of an objective person if illogical conclusions spiral out of control. The fact remains clear that most of the pro-development arguments are invalid, and the facts illustrated in my previous post have not been soundly addressed. It is one thing to disagree with a post's hypothesis and supporting evidence/proofs, which should be encouraged; it is an entirely different situation when the other person does not back his/her arguments with contrary data. The latter reality continues to be a predominant force on this forum. If you want to observe and scrutinize my free analyses, please see my site at http://www.freewebs.com/emdolphinwx/analyses.htm. Time and frequency of daily analyses is dependent on external factors that I can't control.

I am done. It's been an enjoyable experience over the past four seasons, but my public appearance is finally and dutifully coming to an end.

Goodbye.

[cycloneye]

Can all see this pic?

[Eyewall]

cool picture

[Fego]

By the way, the wave axis in question (as previously mentioned) is still inland near Nigeria. The "entrance" has not commenced.

On the surface, most of the audience appears to have been taught to immediately reject all contrary evidence from those who do not expect cyclogenesis. Unfortunately, this attitude has been unintentionally encouraged, and hostility toward posters who denounce development in certain cases is increasing. If this attitude continues, I will stop providing my objective analyses to this site. The "head powers" have done a nice job with the management of the site, but I feel my presence is unwarranted. Anyone who is familiar with me knows that I do not debunk or deny all probabilities for cyclogenesis. In fact, I was (initially) consistently calling for the plausible development of Arthur in the southern Caribbean Sea in late May; though the timing was incorrect and I eventually changed my views, we still witnessed it, despite doubts from others. I will undoubtedly lurk, but further posts will not occur. You will immediately realize the invaluable necessities of an objective person if illogical conclusions spiral out of control. The fact remains clear that most of the pro-development arguments are invalid, and the facts illustrated in my previous post have not been soundly addressed. It is one thing to disagree with a post's hypothesis and supporting evidence/proofs, which should be encouraged; it is an entirely different situation when the other person does not back his/her arguments with contrary data. The latter reality continues to be a predominant force on this forum. If you want to observe and scrutinize my free analyses, please see my site at http://www.freewebs.com/emdolphinwx/analyses.htm. Time and frequency of daily analyses is dependent on external factors that I can't control.

I am done. It's been an enjoyable experience over the past four seasons, but my public appearance is finally and dutifully coming to an end.

Goodbye.

Thanks for the clarification about the 'entrance'. About your complaint, let me ask you to reconsider ypur decision.

[HURAKAN]

Luis, that impressive. But as always we say, persistance is the key.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Think the title should say July 1-2

[Eyewall]

Please do not leave .

[boca]

By the way, the wave axis in question (as previously mentioned) is still inland near Nigeria. The "entrance" has not commenced.

On the surface, most of the audience appears to have been taught to immediately reject all contrary evidence from those who do not expect cyclogenesis. Unfortunately, this attitude has been unintentionally encouraged, and hostility toward posters who denounce development in certain cases is increasing. If this attitude continues, I will stop providing my objective analyses to this site. The "head powers" have done a nice job with the management of the site, but I feel my presence is unwarranted. Anyone who is familiar with me knows that I do not debunk or deny all probabilities for cyclogenesis. In fact, I was (initially) consistently calling for the plausible development of Arthur in the southern Caribbean Sea in late May; though the timing was incorrect and I eventually changed my views, we still witnessed it, despite doubts from others. I will undoubtedly lurk, but further posts will not occur. You will immediately realize the invaluable necessities of an objective person if illogical conclusions spiral out of control. The fact remains clear that most of the pro-development arguments are invalid, and the facts illustrated in my previous post have not been soundly addressed. It is one thing to disagree with a post's hypothesis and supporting evidence/proofs, which should be encouraged; it is an entirely different situation when the other person does not back his/her arguments with contrary data. The latter reality continues to be a predominant force on this forum. If you want to observe and scrutinize my free analyses, please see my site at http://www.freewebs.com/emdolphinwx/analyses.htm. Time and frequency of daily analyses is dependent on external factors that I can't control.

I am done. It's been an enjoyable experience over the past four seasons, but my public appearance is finally and dutifully coming to an end.

Goodbye.

Hey Daniel you can't take what people comment to heart.Don't take things too seriously this is a fun board with alot of good information. I would reconsider before you go.

[cycloneye]

Luis, that impressive. But as always we say, persistance is the key.

That is riight especially when climo does not favor development close to Africa.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Despite the persistence in the models, I think I am going to wait a day or two before getting too excited about this wave. I want to see how it holds up overnight and into tomorrow first. If it still looks strong by this time tomorrow, then I will probably start to have much more confidence in the idea of a tropical cyclone actually developing out of this. No matter what, It will definitely be an interesting situation to watch unfold over the next 24+ hours.

[wxman57]

Here's a visible shot from earlier today. I can see a lower-level spin near 10.5N/12W. Convection is very weak now, though. Another wave very similar to this one moved off the coast a few days ago and is now a naked swirl near the Cape Verde Islands. The only reason this wave may have a shot at developing is that I put in for a vacation day July 3rd and I'm off the 4th-6th. Every time I take a vacation day during hurricane season a storm develops. Never fails. So I'd give it a 100% shot at developing on Wednesday.

On a more serious (semi-so) note, I measured a 24-hr movement of about 10 kts to the west from 15Z yesterday to 15Z today. Lacking a central core of convection it may well "poof-out" once it moves offshore like the one ahead of it. I remember the GFS was developing that first wave, too, and it died out. Realistically, the chances are not good for development given the time of the season and the general lack of convection. I'd give it maybe a 5% shot.

15Z satellite with arrows indicating lower-level cloud motions:

[cycloneye]

If it continues as it looks tonight I can see INVEST 92L sometime on Tuesday or the latest on Wednesday but if it poofs convectionwise forget about 92L.

[srainhoutx]

The only reason this wave may have a shot at developing is that I put in for a vacation day July 3rd and I'm off the 4th-6th. Every time I take a vacation day during hurricane season a storm develops. Never fails. So I'd give it a 100% shot at developing on Wednesday.

So we can blame you, wxman57

[ronjon]

MiamiensisWx , I hope you reconsider your decision to leave this forum. I've been a poster for three years or so and frequently enjoy reading your thoughtful analyses. I would only offer that there is a good divergence of opinion on the forum and I would hope that no poster takes any disagreement personally. As far as this potential storm goes, climatology is on your side so I think the overall odds do not favor development.