Large Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic

[njweather]

If this doesn't develop (or 97L) then we're probably entering a lull, I say that just because of all the dry air and negative MJO...had a unusual burst of activity through the month, I think a break is due now.

I wouldn't be too sure of that. We're entering August.

Many models are forecasting yet another tropical wave to to move off the coast in approx 130 hrs.

[gatorcane]

No mention of this in the 2 PM Tropical Weather Outlook.

Yeah I would have been a bit surprised if they would have mentioned it. As Frank2 says, they want to see persistence. In 24 hours if its still there, I expect the TWO to include it.

[Jason_B]

If this doesn't develop (or 97L) then we're probably entering a lull, I say that just because of all the dry air and negative MJO...had a unusual burst of activity through the month, I think a break is due now.

I wouldn't be too sure of that. We're entering August.

Many models are forecasting yet another tropical wave to to move off the coast in approx 130 hrs.

There's been lull's in August and the models forecast a new wave everyday, that's really nothing new. That's just my opinion, but seeing how this past month has been I wouldn't doubt anything though.

[JonathanBelles]

I am expecting at least a week lull now...possibly two weeks.

[gatorcane]

Latest, looking interesting and still maintaining throughout the day. DMAX later tonight.

[cycloneye]

[jaxfladude]

I call this wave to Dissipate...!!!!

[cycloneye]

From the 2 PM discussion:

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 11N25W 7N36W 5N46W 7N57W. A
LARGE CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFF THE
AFRICAN COAST AND NOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN
17W-21.5W. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A
NEW TROPICAL WAVE. THE VERTICAL SOUNDING FROM DAKAR THIS MORNING
SHOWED NLY WINDS AT LOW LEVELS INDICATING THAT THE WAVE HAS NOT
CROSS THIS AREA YET. THE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM DEPICTS THE WWD
PROPAGATION OF THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER WESTERN
AFRICA AND COASTAL WATERS. WE WILL WAIT FOR FURTHER DATA BEFORE
PLACING THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 35W-55W.

[littlevince]

18z

RGB 3,2,1 Composite



BIG visible 0.6 - 0.9 µm

[HurricaneHunter914]

This one has a better chance than Ex-97L. SAL isn't too high down there, SST's are warmer, and shear looks favorable for the time being. I think it should be an Invest by the 8pm TWO.

[RL3AO]

The wave is still over Africa. Thats probably why they haven't mentioned it yet in the TWO.

[HURAKAN]

It looks impressive. We have to keep an eye on it.

[Sanibel]

Forget 97L. This one has formation written all over it.

[HURAKAN]

"Forget", where did I hear that word before?

[Emmett_Brown]

I think this one has a shot. Actually, this wave, and ex 97L both have a chance. Shear will be low in the central atlantic in 48 hours per GFS:



Of the 2, the trailing wave has the better chance because it is farther south, over warmer water, and S of the SAL.

[Blown Away]

Just on satellite presentation it looks like a named system. At least it should get some discussion, we will see.

[gatorcane]

Looking at the long-range GFS, it seems to develop a low from this wave that just emerged in the short-term moves it west and then opens it back up into a tropical wave. But what's interesting is that the GFS shows ex-97L being absorbed by a weakness and this wave moving West to West-Northwest all the way to the Northern Leewards.

I think the steering currents are there for this thing to move generally west over the next 5-7 days. If it gradually organizes things could get interesting, if it rapidly organizes it may get sucked up with ex-97L and get pulled out to sea.




TAFB position of wave (far right-hand side of image). Notice it is tilted SSW to NNE:

[Derek Ortt]

it will have to encounter a MAJOR SAL outbreak that is coming off of Africa.

Not that concerned about this one at this time. It could conceivable develop into something weak... but this one should not be anything major right away

[KWT]

Thats the thing I fear Derek, Dolly remained weak till the western caribbean but look what it did...

[Gustywind]

Last blog until August 6
With the tropics relatively quiet now, I'm going to take some time off and do some hiking in Colorado (I've spent the past 3 days blogging from the back seat of a heavily loaded rental car, driving cross-county!) The peak part of hurricane season is almost a month away, and if the behavior of the tropics in July is any indication, it will be a long and severe hurricane season. So, I'm going to get some R&R in, and let Bryan Woods blog for me while I'm gone. I will be keeping an eye on things, and can jump back in if anything nasty pops up.
Jeff Masters.